The likelihood of an Irish National Liberation Army ceasefire has been strengthened after the leadership of its political wing urged the republican paramilitary group to declare a cessation.
The Irish Republican Socialist Party, in a motion at its annual ardfheis in Dublin this weekend, will call on its military front, the INLA, to announce a ceasefire "until the conclusion of the Stormont talks process next May".
The INLA is then expected to declare a qualified cessation, as the IRSP would not table such a motion if its ardfheis was unlikely to endorse it.
The ceasefire prospect is further enhanced as the motion is being tabled by the party's ard chomhairle. Such a motion would hardly have been tabled unless the leaderships of the two organisations have liaised.
The suspicion that a ceasefire will be qualified is supported by a second motion, which does not call on the INLA to lay down its arms but urges that it not engage in "direct action" against the talks process. This would allow it to operate a no-first-strike policy.
The IRSP was last night withholding details of the location for its ardfheis tomorrow in Dublin. It expects about 150 members to attend. Journalists will not be allowed to cover discussion of the two ceasefire motions, but they can witness the voting and report discussion of subsequent motions.
Mr Paul Lyttle, spokesman for the IRSP, said that under the terms of the first motion, after any political settlement in May the party would hold an extraordinary ardfheis and decide if it could accept such a political pact.
Then, the INLA leadership would hold an army convention to discuss the IRSP proposals. Mr Lyttle indicated that he expected both motions to be carried. "The IRSP has been led to believe that the INLA will view any recommendations coming from the ardfheis extremely seriously," he said.
The IRSP and INLA believe a political solution would not meet its demands for an end to partition, so whether its expected ceasefire would continue, or its terms be extended, remains open to question.
According to the second motion: "Nothing can be achieved at Stormont which would fit in with republican socialist objectives. For that reason, the IRSP recommends that the INLA take no direct action against the talks process. The flawed political process has to be seen to fail because of its own flaws, not some action by the INLA."
The INLA is a small, ruthless organisation. In May this year, it murdered an unarmed RUC officer, Darren Bradshaw, who was under suspension, in a Belfast bar frequented by gays. Gardai shot dead one of its members, John Morris, in June in Dublin during an armed robbery. In a veiled threat to the Garda, the INLA said Mr Morris's death would not be "forgotten".
Last year it was engulfed in an internecine dispute after its leader, Mr Gino Gallagher, was shot dead in Belfast. The feud resulted in six deaths including that of nine-year-old Barbara McAlorum, with Mr Gallagher's associates retaining control.
At that time, the INLA rejected Sinn Fein calls for the body to disband. Its murder of Const Bradshaw in May caused some surprise in security circles as it had previously observed a de facto ceasefire. It created suspicion that it may have given "permission" for the murder by the IRA, although the INLA insisted it acted unilaterally.
Meanwhile, on the political front, Mr Sean Farren, a member of the SDLP talks team, told a party student support group in Trinity College, Dublin last night that "viable North-South arrangements based on the European model are crucial to the talks process".
"Arrangements which genuinely aim not at domination but at co-operation to the mutual benefit of all the people of Ireland must be the goal," said Mr Farren.