The West fears a Hizbullah victory, but such fears are misplaced as the organisation has other concerns, writes MICHAEL JANSENin Beirut
SOLDIERS AND police barred the narrow streets leading to the football field in Bourj Hammoud, where hundreds of Armenians were gathering at a rally staged by the Tashnag party and its allies ahead of tomorrow’s election.
Huge speakers mounted on tall metal frames standing on either side of the stage blared first World War vintage Armenian revolutionary songs, while families and groups of friends filed in and settled on ranks of plastic chairs.
Children brandished staves bearing the red Tashnag flag or the orange banner of the party of Maronite Catholic general Michel Aoun. Teenagers in orange T-shirts proclaiming “Proud to be Aounist” handed out leaflets. The near full moon hanging overhead disappeared in a blaze of lights.
In the front row, Tashnag deputy Hagop Pakradounian was flanked by stalwart Aounists. The speeches, in Arabic and Armenian, were punctuated by sudden bursts of flame from torches on the stage and cries of approval.
The message was the same in both languages: if you vote for us, you will secure your rights.
The aim of the alliance is to boost Tashnag’s representation in parliament, where it now holds two of the six Armenian seats.
Three seats have already been decided because there are no contests in two constituencies. But the remaining three are in districts where the ruling and opposition blocs are running neck and neck.
One or two seats are crucial. Armenians make up 6 to 8 per cent of Lebanon’s Christians. They account for about 30 per cent of the population as a whole, and have been allocated 50 per cent of assembly seats.
The most interesting aspect of the Tashnag-Aounist rally was the conspicuous absence of the elephant in the campaign: Hizbullah.
There was not a yellow and green Hizbullah flag to be seen and no Hizbullah politician to be heard, although the Shia move- ment – branded as “terrorist” by the US but not the EU – leads the Syrian and Iranian-backed opposition coalition, which includes Tashnag, the Aounists, the Shia secular Amal movement and a pro-Syrian Greek Orthodox party. But in largely Christian East Beirut, Hizbullah keeps a low profile and the Aounists do not play up their alliance with it.
Lebanon’s tribal politics make strange bedfellows.
It had been a day of election rallies. Saad Hariri, head of the ruling Saudi-supported and pro-western Future Movement, addressed his supporters in the northern city of Tripoli while his partner, prime minister Fuad Siniora, attended a rally in his home city of Sidon in the south.
They have sewn up the Sunni Muslim community in these cities and in Beirut. The Future Movement’s partners are the right-wing Maronite Christian Phalange and Lebanese Forces and the Druze.
The Armenians, who dwell in hotly-contested constituencies, could be the kingmakers, thanks to the Byzantine political system imposed on the country in the 1930s by Lebanon’s French colonial masters.
The Lebanese vote in their native cities, towns and villages. In spite of the tight race, only 57 to 59 per cent of the electorate of 1.2 million to 1.5 million is expected to cast ballots.
Each of the country’s main communities has a quota and the minorities are allocated two seats.
Of the 128 seats being contested by 580-odd candidates, 104 have already been filled by scions of feudal families or members of the new business bourgeoisie.
Both blocs are promising change, knowing full well that they will have to reach an accommodation once the votes are counted.
The only people who believe in the possibility of change are the western powers, who fear a Hizbullah victory. They say this could lead to the transformation of Lebanon into an Islamic state modelled on Iran or threaten the so-called “moderate” Arab leaders and upset the longstanding regional balance of power which they argue is being challenged by Iran. Analysts here dismiss this reading of the situation.
Dr Amal Saad Ghorayeb, an expert on Hizbullah, says it is not interested in victory. She points out that the movement reduced the number of candidates it is fielding from 16 in the 2005 election to 11 today. “It wants to strengthen its allies in parliament so they will protect the resistance” by blocking any attempt to disband Hizbullah’s military wing. Hizbullah “has only one minister in the government now and may not even have a presence in the next government”, she says.
Timor Goksel, a former political adviser to the UN force in south Lebanon, agrees. “Hizbullah knows the red lines and will not cross those lines. Hizbullah knows miscalculations could be very expensive.”
But he expressed concern that the US and other western powers could create confrontation by trying to pit the Hariri bloc against Hizbullah. He is also worried that Saudi Arabia and Iran could scupper any power- sharing deal reached by the two blocs “by making [the outcome of the election] a prestige issue”.