Arms inspection lifts prospects for post-election deal

Mr Peter Robinson of the DUP dismissed the latest IRA arms inspection as a "diversion and a distraction".

Mr Peter Robinson of the DUP dismissed the latest IRA arms inspection as a "diversion and a distraction".

There's some truth in that, yet this was another small but important gesture that it would be folly to discount.

The timing raised eyebrows, notwithstanding the inspectors' point that this would have happened earlier but for the foot-and-mouth outbreak. "A meaningless pre-election gimmick," Mr Robinson said.

But the fact is that the Northern Ireland electorate is not utterly stupid. This isn't going to persuade thousands of SDLP stalwarts to apostatise in favour of Sinn Fein. Or it won't be the crucial factor that convinces unionist waverers to mark their Xs for the Ulster Unionist Party rather than the DUP, in the belief that David Trimble has the best line on guns.

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What this third inspection illustrates is that when the election is over there is the potential for a deal on arms. Such a deal would be tied up with the dominant issues of policing and demilitarisation. This inspection, and the fact that the IRA is still engaging with the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning, does not say that the IRA will deliver, but it says it is still thinking about it.

The inspectors, Mr Martti Ahtisaari and Mr Cyril Ramaphosa, are people of international standing who must be conscious of their own credibility. If they make a statement they must be able to stand over it.

And they felt confident enough to state: "The IRA has once again fully honoured their commitments and complied with the terms of our engagement, and we are convinced that this co-operation will continue."

Again, this does not necessarily mean it will start dismantling its arsenals. But it brings us back to the IRA statement of May last year when the IRA made another commitment, that in the right "context" it would "initiate a process that will completely and verifiably put IRA arms beyond use".

As a demonstration of its bona fides it said it would, as it has done, open up dumps to inspectors. Anybody familiar with republican theology on arms understands that this was not lightly conceded.

The right "context" is translated as the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement, particularly the matters closest to republicans' hearts, such as policing and demilitarisation.

That's what the post-election negotiations will be about: IRA weapons, policing, dismantling the British army observation posts and safeguarding the institutions of the Belfast Agreement. Simple to define, more difficult to achieve.

In the spring before the elections cancelled all talks there was the smell of a deal. The British and Irish governments thought at one stage that republicans, along with the SDLP and the UUP, would sign up to a formula to resolve all these matters.

They were close, they indicated, particularly on policing and demilitarisation. On June 18th the parties will resume where they left off in an effort to crack the final difficulties. They will try to do that before Mr Trimble's latest resignation threat comes into effect on July 1st.

Sinn Fein said it was not as close to agreement as some Dublin and London sources were spinning, but it too agreed that there were possibilities. Obviously, Sinn Fein is still leaning more to the positive than the negative.

Mr Martin McGuinness was confident this week that Mr Trimble would not have to resign and that all issues, including arms, would be resolved.

The Sinn Fein leader, Mr Gerry Adams, said the inspections proved that the IRA was committed to the peace process. It was equally important that the IRA was continuing its discussions with Gen John de Chastelain's decommissioning body, he said, and he hoped this development would be welcomed by all pro-agreement parties, particularly the UUP.

Mr Trimble neither welcomed nor rebuffed the statement. He just wanted IRA arms put beyond use. Which again brings us back to what the post-election negotiating period will be about: the IRA May 2000 statement, or returning to the future.