Army emerging as key wild card in struggle

UKRAINE: Colonel Yuri Andreyivich Kasyanov ended his 32-year-career in the Ukrainian military yesterday morning

Ukraine cadets raise their arms in support of opposition leader liberal Viktor Yushchenko during a mass rally in Kiev's Independence Square yesterday
Ukraine cadets raise their arms in support of opposition leader liberal Viktor Yushchenko during a mass rally in Kiev's Independence Square yesterday

UKRAINE: Colonel Yuri Andreyivich Kasyanov ended his 32-year-career in the Ukrainian military yesterday morning. Shortly after breakfast he resigned his commission, donned his full green uniform with gold epaulettes, and went out on the freezing streets of the capital to throw his support behind the opposition demonstrators. Chris Stephen reports from Kiev.

"I came to support them, I believe in democracy," he told me, standing in his green army overcoat with bronze stars and peaked cap with gold braid across the front.

"I resigned from the army today so I can come and be here."

Young demonstrators milling around him in their familiar garb of orange scarves and ribbons lined up to congratulate him, but the question on their lips was - will the rest of the army follow? In the ever more intense game of political poker played by government and opposition in recent days, the army is emerging as the key wild card.

READ MORE

Support from the armed forces will guarantee victory for either Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich or opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko, both of whom insist they are the rightful president.

For now the forces are staying out of it, with Defence Minister Oleksander Kuzmuk telling his troops to "act in a measured way, and fulfil your constitutional duty in the respect of the law." But if, as Yushchenko has warned, it is decided that the law was broken, by either government or opposition, the process will enter uncharted territory.

As the stakes get higher and the threat of violence between government and opposition increases, inaction may no longer be an option for Ukraine's armed forces.

"Inside the army at all levels everyone is talking about this, it is hard to know what the conclusion will be," said the colonel, formerly a lawyer with the army's internal security office. "It is difficult to say what the final view will be." But suppose push comes to shove and, for instance, Yushchenko demands army support to force his way into the presidential palace? "I don't know, I don't know," says the colonel. "Right now, they would not obey. The high command would never obey that order. But many of the junior officers feel differently, many of them support this protest."

Each day TV pictures show small handfuls of army and navy officers among the huge opposition crowds in Kiev, but the colonel said other officers are firmly supportive of Yanukovich's government.

"There are a lot of different opinions, nobody knows what the army will finally decide," he said.

In fact, the battle over who is the rightful president slices through the army's key doctrine, which is defence of the country.

"When you join the army you promise to defend Ukraine, and that is what the army will do. We will sacrifice our lives, that is our promise." Yet Yushchenko has repeatedly warned that the country is on the brink of civil war, and the army may soon have to make a choice.

"I am finished with the army, I do not want to serve under the present government," said Col Kasyanov. But if Yushchenko became president, and asked for commanders he could trust? "I'd be back in the service immediately," says the colonel with a smile.

Complicating the problem still further is the need to restore prestige. Col Kasyanov spent the main part of his career with the Red Army of the former Soviet Union, when Ukraine was part of the USSR controlled from Moscow. At the time the army was powerful, its units disciplined and morale high.

Since independence budget cuts and low morale have become the norm, and the armed forces have endured a series of disastrous body blows to its prestige.

In 2001 a Ukrainian air defence missile fired in error during an exercise shot down a Russian airliner over the Black Sea, killing all 64 on board.

Two years ago a top-line SU-27 fighter jet crashed into crowds during an air show, killing 78 spectators in a fireball.

And the decision to send 1,600 troops to join coalition forces in Iraq has also proved divisive at home, with many Ukrainians opposed to the war.

Yet the Ukrainian army can draw on powerful units, not least the Cossacks, who live in the southern plains and once provided some of the world's finest cavalry units.

For now, the army is keen to stay on the sidelines, but if the peaceful protests turn violent it will face an awkward choice between siding with the government or with the demonstrators.

Making the right choice could see its past mistakes forgotten and its reputation soar. But the problem now confounding officers and conscripts in barrack rooms across the land is just what this choice should be.