JOHN BRUTON couldn't believe his luck when he became Taoiseach following the collapse of the Fianna Fail/Labour Party government in 1994. And the findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll would suggest that Lady Luck has not deserted him. He now has a real prospect of leading the next government.
Two months to go to a general election and Fine Gael has scaled heights of public support it has not experienced for seven years, with a 30 per cent rating.
With the wind behind him - and Mr Michael Lowry removed from the party - Mr Bruton has broken the 60 per cent personal satisfaction barrier to overtake Bertie Ahern in the popularity ratings and to challenge Mary Harney for the top position. Dick Spring comes in fourth.
Middle class voters have gravitated to Fine Gael in sizeable numbers over the past months. The party now attracts the allegiance of 33 per cent of this group, as against 37 per cent for Fianna Fail, 11 per cent for the Progressive Democrats and 10 per cent for the Labour Parry.
Support for the party in Dublin, Leinster and Connacht/Ulster has also risen. And more than four in 10 Fianna Fail voters are satisfied with the performance of the Government.
For a man who barely survived a challenge to his leadership four years ago, when Fine Gael slumped to an all time low of 17 per cent, it is heady stuff indeed. And it didn't just happen.
Mr Bruton has striven hard to make this Government work. Determined to avoid the disastrous example of Fianna Fail led coalitions, the Meath TD treated his partners equals and opted for compromise rather than confrontation. And, of course, he had the luck to inherit a booming economy.
After two years of inter party cooperation, the cement appears to have set. The public has recognised that Mr Bruton has grown into the job. Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left are now offering themselves for re election as a Government that works, with a proven track record.
In advance of the official election campaign, they have opened fire on the alternative arrangement of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats. And, according to this opinion poll, their shots are hitting the target.
In two months, the advantage enjoyed by the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats combinations over Fine Gael/Labour/Democratic Left has been halved, from 12 to six points. And, on the basis of party support and voting intentions, a similar trend is detectable with a December gap of 21 points narrowing to 15 points in January and eight today.
While a sizeable shift in voting intentions has been detected by this poll, the outcome of the election is still open. The "don't know" category still accounts for 15 per cent of those surveyed.
And the volatility of voters, which was such a feature of recent elections, may yet manifest itself in n unexpected fashion.
Although Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats will he disappointed by these findings, they will not despair. They are still in the running to form the next government. A two point drop by Fianna Fail, to 42 per cent, may be nothing more than a temporary blip.
And the Progressive Democrats will be quite pleased with a showing of 9 per cent, an advance on the party's, average for last year.
A worrying development for Mr Ahern must he the decline in support for the party in Dublin, especially in middle class areas. His own popularity has dropped by a single point.
And the sizeable increase in the Government's satisfaction level among working class voters may indicate a future shift in voting intention.
There will be some relief within the Labour Party over the rise to 11 per cent in party support, and over the gradually opening gap between it and the Progressive Democrats in Dublin. Support for the party is now in double figures in Dublin, Leinster and Munster, and Mr Spring's personal satisfaction rating has grown, by three points to 54 per cent.
Support for Democratic Left is unchanged at 2 per cent, but there was some erosion in the satisfaction rating of Mr Proinsias De Rossa (down three points to 43 per cent) in the aftermath of his inconclusive libel action against the Sunday Independent.
There is some resistance within the parties to the government options being pursued by their leaders. Only 80 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters favour a coalition with the Progressive Democrats; 72 per cent of the Progressive Democrats want an alliance with Fianna Fail; and 8 per cent of supporters of both parties favour a continuation of the existing Government.
The same arrangement is favoured by 85 per cent of Fine Gael and 70 per cent of Labour voters, 14 per cent of whom would like an arrangement with Fianna Fail.