The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today downgraded its 2003 economic growth forecast for East Asia, citing an impending Iraq war and easing export momentum.
Average gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the region is expected to moderate to 5.6 per cent this year from 6.1 per cent in 2002, the Manila-based bank said.
The bank had earlier predicted the economies of Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, South Korea, Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam would have an average growth of nearly 6 per cent this year.
In a quarterly report card on the health of the 12 economies, the ADB said tensions over Iraq had led to rising uncertainty, dampened business as well as consumer confidence and pushed oil prices 30 per cent higher since mid-June 2002.
The ADB revised downwards 2003 GDP growth forecast for Singapore from 4.7 per cent to 3.8 per cent, South Korea from 5.6 per cent to 5 per cent, Malaysia from 5.2 per cent to 4.7 per cent, and Indonesia from 4 per cent to 3.6 per cent.
Growth forecasts for China, Thailand, and Philippines were largely unchanged at 7.5 per cent, 4.1 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively.
The ADB also issued a warning on the region's moderating export growth momentum due to less imports from the United States, Europe and Japan.
Growth of East Asian exports, the region's top money- spinner, eased in the second half of last year in Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Exports also moderated in China, South Korea and Malaysia in the fourth quarter of 2002.
AFP