MIDDLE EAST: Israel's policy of assassinations could lead to a more radical Hamas and unite Palestinian factions, writes Nuala Haughey in Gaza
Israel's planned unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the assassination of two Hamas leaders in one month are both sides of the same coin.
The Islamic militant group enjoys its strongest support in the teeming Palestinian enclave, and Israel is determined to crush it there so it cannot assume control when the Israeli settlers and army bases are gone.
The slaying on Saturday night of the firebrand Dr Abdel-Aziz al- Rantissi, Hamas' leader in Gaza, was described by Israeli Prime Minister Mr Ariel Sharon in his weekly cabinet meeting the following day as part of a policy framework to "open a diplomatic process that could greatly benefit Israel and an effort to fight terror organisations, terrorists and anyone whose aim is to attack Israeli civilians".
Few could argue that this strike is anything but a severe blow to Hamas, which was already reeling from the Israeli killing of its founder, the paraplegic cleric Sheikh Ahmed Yassin (68) in a similar aerial missile strike in Gaza City on March 22nd.
Dr Rantissi was perceived as more hardline than his predecessor, whose death he did not live to see avenged despite the many bloodcurdling pledges. The loss of its second leader in a month only intensifies the pressure on Hamas to carry out a "spectacular" attack against Israel.
Israel's defence establishment is confident that Hamas has been severely weakened by the double blow, not to mention the ongoing threats of more to come. All the organisation's leaders are dead men walking, and Israel has also started to put the squeeze on its funding, forcing it to resort to public fundraising on the streets of Gaza City last week.
But then there is also the old military maxim that if you don't destroy your enemy, you are only teaching him how to fight.
Hamas has long been viewed as almost amateurish when compared to other militant groups - notably Hizbullah in neighbouring Lebanon.
Unlike the highly secretive Hizbullah, Hamas has always paraded its leaders in public. Its decision not to publicly name Dr Rantissi's successor is a significant departure for the organisation, an indication that the leadership has been put on the defensive.
Palestinian sources speculated the new leader was either senior Hamas members, Mr Mahmoud al-Zahar or Mr Ismail Haniyah.
"Hamas has lost the two most prominent and strong leaders," said Dr Ghazi Hamid, editor of a weekly Gaza newspaper Al-Resala (The Message) which has strong ties to Hamas.
"It is not easy for Hamas to recover from this shock but I think it will be a temporary shock. It has a store of leaders and they will face troubles. I think Hamas will turn to be a more secretive organisation."
Some Israeli analysts have also predicted that Israel's pounding of Hamas' Gaza leadership may strengthen the control of its higher echelon of leaders in the Syrian capital Damascus, who are considered more radical.
Mr Sharon's cabinet meeting reference to Dr Rantissi's death as part of a policy framework to "open a diplomatic process that could greatly benefit Israel" is a statement which only makes sense if viewed through the prism of Washington's vigorous support for his controversial disengagement plan as outlined last week. The Palestinians, the EU and the UN are not part of this diplomatic process, which alone features Mr Sharon and President Bush.
Palestinians are furious that Mr Bush sanctioned Mr Sharon's proposal to withdraw troops and settlers from Gaza and four small West Bank settlements, whilst simultaneously strengthening his grip on several large settlements on West Bank land which Palestinians want for an eventual state.
Mr Bush's endorsement of the plan was widely viewed by Palestinians as the death knell for the "road map" peace plan launched by the US president along with the EU, the UN and Russia last June. The Palestinian leadership, already feeling humiliated and sidelined by President Bush's support for Mr Sharon's plan, were further stunned and outraged by Dr Rantissi's death.
"The killing means continuous Palestinian struggle against the Israeli military occupation and the denial of recognition of Palestinian rights," said Mr Zacharis El Agha, a member of the central committee of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation, while waiting in a Gaza City graveyard for Dr Rantissi's burial on Sunday.
"The only Palestinian who is good for the Israelis is the dead Palestinian and all the Palestinian leaders are on this schedule and we are sure that today is Hamas, tomorrow is Fatah and other Palestinian factions. Israel doesn't want any Palestinian who asks for their rights. They want people who acknowledge and accept the Israeli plans."
Hamas support is strong in Gaza, where it operates mosques, schools, clinics and social programmes and has no trouble attracting ardent youths to join its military wing and sacrifice themselves as "martyrs" in order to kill Israelis.
Since Sharon revealed his plans to remove Gaza's 7,500 Jewish settlers from their heavily fortified enclaves on land shared with 1.3 million stateless Palestinians, Hamas had held meetings with the Palestinian Authority and other factions on how the strip would be controlled after Israeli withdrawal.
This had prompted fears that it might successfully vie with the Palestinian Authority for future control of the strip, which is fenced-off from Israel.
In the light of the level of Hamas' popular support, Israel's attempt to write it out of the post-withdrawal equation in the Gaza Strip is a tall order. In fact, some say there is a risk that its policy of assassinations of Hamas leaders, combined with its sidelining of the Palestinian Authority might only serve to unite Palestinian factions, as well as vindicating Hamas' claim that resistance operations rather than peace talks are the only language Israel will understand.
"People feel that nothing is left from the peace process," said Dr Hamad in Gaza City. "People say that there is no future for us, we have to fight against occupation. I think this [Dr Rantissi's killing] will strengthen Hamas, weaken the Palestinian Authority and push all the Palestinian factions to be more united."