EAST BELFAST:THIS WAS the constituency that provided the story of the last Westminster election just 12 months ago.
Naomi Long defeated DUP leader Peter Robinson to take the seat – more than doubling her party vote from 2007.
Robinson had been the East Belfast MP since 1979 and successfully defended the seat six times.
But this was the DUP’s darkest hour in the wake of the Iris Robinson affair, and the First Minister has since rebounded spectacularly.
So how will the East Belfast electorate react this time?
They could keep faith with a resurgent Alliance Party, which is bidding strongly for a second Assembly seat, or renew its relationship with the Ulster Unionists, now refashioning themselves following last year’s debacle alongside the Tories under the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force banner.
Voters could opt for Independents – there is a broad sweep of them, ranging from the far-right British National Party to Dawn Purvis, formerly of the loyalist-aligned Progressive Unionists, to the Green Party, a Socialist, and the anti-agreement Traditional Unionist Voice, among others.
It is a diverse slate of candidates for a constituency that is overwhelmingly unionist and which had voted in 2007 to keep half of its eggs in the DUP basket.
Holding on to three of the six seats with somewhere between two and three quotas is a challenge for those charged with balancing the DUP first preferences.
The party may well want to ensure that Robinson is decisively elected in an early count to prove that the tough times are over for him and his party.
Alliance has other ideas and, with a claim on two quotas, is keen to show that its appeal is neither temporary nor based simply on a reaction against another party.
The Ulster Unionists lost a seat to the DUP here in 2007, and its decision to run two candidates is evidence that it won’t lie down in capitulation to either Peter Robinson or Alliance.
At least one seat for the party is assured. If the second is to be captured, it will almost certainly be the final seat, and the battle for that is wide open with the now-Independent Dawn Purvis closely involved.
The TUV had a disappointing showing here last year with just 5.4 per cent of the vote, and has changed candidate this time in the hope of better things.
Sinn Féin is quietly building here in nationalist areas and the SDLP is trying a first-time candidate of Polish background.
EAST BELFAST: 6 SEATS
OUTGOING:
Peter Robinson (DUP), Lord (Wallace) Browne (DUP), Robin Newton (DUP), Sir Reg Empey (UUP), Naomi Long (All), Dawn Purvis (PUP).
CANDIDATES:
Peter Robinson (DUP), Sammy Douglas (DUP), Robin Newton (DUP), Michael Copeland (UUP), Philip Robinson (UUP), Judith Cochrane (Alliance), Chris Lyttle (Alliance), Brian Ervine (PUP), Niall Ó Donnghaile (Sinn Féin), Magdalena Wolska (SDLP), Martin Gregg (Green), Tommy Black (Socialist Party), Ann Cooper (BNP), Kevin McNally (Workers Party), Dawn Purvis (Independent), Stephen Stewart (Independent), Harry Toan (TUV).
LOCAL ISSUES:
Development of George Best Belfast city Airport is a sore issue for communities under the flightpath. Planning issues are to the fore at local level.
VERDICT:
DUP 2, UUP 1, Alliance 2, Ind 1