A leading education figure recalled how he met two secondary teachers on their way to vote in the strike ballot last week. Both were deeply conservative people for whom the word militant is an alien concept, yet both were voting for industrial action.
Explaining their vote, they remarked casually that it would all be over by the end of November. "We will close schools for a couple of days and the Government will cave in."
One can hardly blame teachers for being so confident. When the gardai and the nurses demonstrated similar industrial muscle, the Government, in their view, rolled over. However, there is a significant difference between the ASTI dispute and other confrontations in the public sector.
ASTI has failed to draw support from the other teaching unions. It is on a solo run.
ASTI is the only teaching union which is walking out of schools. More than 30,000 teachers in the other teaching unions - the Irish National Teachers Organisation and the Teachers Union of Ireland - are pursuing their pay claims through negotiation. They seem poised to report good progress for one good rea son - if the Government does not deliver for the INTO and the TUI, it will drive both unions into an alliance with ASTI.
The INTO and the TUI hope to secure a series of tax and other anti-inflation concessions through the current review of the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (PPF). They also hope, with increasing confidence, that the benchmarking mechanism established by the PPF will open the way for significant pay increases - sooner rather than later. This benchmarking body is due to report at the end of 2002 but it seems certain to be brought forward to next year.
Government concessions in the PPF review and on benchmark ing are expected within weeks - just as ASTI members are closing schools as part of their campaign.
If the Government delivers for the other teaching unions, it could isolate ASTI. It is seeking 30 per cent, but the others could get close to this over the coming months - without taking industrial action. The PPF already provides 19 per cent over three years, but the review and benchmarking should yield significant extra concessions for INTO and TUI members.
The Government this weekend appears confident of facing down ASTI. It has no shortage of ammunition in the public relations war. The public will be reminded repeatedly of how ASTI refused to comply with the finding of the independent Public Service Arbitration Board, which rejected ASTI's 30 per cent pay claim. It advised it to join the other teaching unions in pursuing its demand through the PPF.
ASTI maintains the board re fused to engage seriously with the issues but, at times, it appears as though the union is blaming the referee for the wrong result.
It is also vulnerable to the charge that it has still to work out a coherent strategy. The union stresses its readiness to negotiate but it is not clear what there is to negotiate upon. Does it want 30 per cent just for this year? Does this include the 8 per cent its members have already received under the PPF? What does it want next year?
It has still to spell out precisely what will satisfy its demands or to offer anything in the way of extra productivity or other concessions in return. It is demanding 30 per cent more in pay but, with the Government determined to face it down, it should prepare for a long, tough battle.