Analysis: The US-led assault on Iraqi rebel positions in Falluja appears to be a determined attempt to crush the enemy - come what may, writes Tom Clonan.
Yesterday's declaration of martial law within Iraq by Prime Minister Iyad Allawi was calculated to signal clearly the Iraqi Interim Government's imprimatur for a massive US-led assault on the city of Falluja. The highly publicised use of Iraqi troops to secure the first strategic objective - Falluja's main hospital on the eastern approaches to the city - was also intended to reassure both the domestic and international audience that the upcoming battle for Falluja is an Iraqi-inspired operation.
The American military has invested considerable resources in their attempt to place a cordon around Falluja in recent days. With up to 25,000 troops from the US Marine Corp's First Marine Expeditionary Force (1 MEF) supported by troops from Britain's Black Watch regiment, the stage seems set for a prolonged and deliberate campaign of urban warfare designed to conclusively destroy the nucleus of Sunni resistance located within Falluja.
In April of this year, the 1 MEF - under the command of Lieut Gen James Conway - engaged in a highly destructive and ultimately abortive assault on Sunni positions within Falluja. Faced with growing international concern over civilian casualties within the city and confronted with the growing threat of Shia insurgency to the south in Najaf and Kerbala, the 1 MEF was eventually ordered by Centcom to withdraw from Falluja.
The order to fall back was greeted with dismay by senior officers on the ground at the time - who felt that such action was politically expedient and premature. Some US commanders felt it would lead to an emboldening of armed resistance within the Sunni triangle - a fear that would appear to have been borne out subsequently with a campaign of suicide bombings, ambushes and assassinations in Baghdad and the al Anbar province that has grown in strength and ferocity with each succeeding month since April.
Seven months later, with a recently strengthened political mandate (a Commander-in-Chief guaranteed a further four years in office), the 1 MEF appears poised to retake Falluja from its defenders. On this occasion, there are signs that the Bush administration and Centcom will not waver in their determination to fully subdue resistance within the city.
Indeed, at a press briefing on Friday last, the current officer commanding the 1 MEF, Lieut Gen Dennis Heljik, made the simple if bald statement: "We're going to go in there and we're going to whack them."
Whatever else, such comments certainly represent an unambiguous explication of what the military refers to as "the commander's intent" - in this instance to enter Falluja and neutralise all resistance within.
Further signs of Centcom's resolve in this matter were also evident in yesterday's closure of all border crossings and routes from neighbouring Syria and Jordan.
Such actions are designed to further isolate the rebels within Falluja and to prevent resupply or the further infiltration or "exfiltration" of guerrillas to and from the city.
Current estimates of the number of resistance fighters believed to be in the city at present vary from between 4,000 to 15,000. However, recent mass killings of civilians and Iraqi police and security personnel in towns and cities such as Ramadi, Samara and Baghdad - one such incident reportedly involving up to 200 militants in an assault on an Iraqi police station - suggest that many guerrillas may already have fled the city.
If whatever remnants choose to fight, they will find themselves in an uneven armed struggle that will ultimately result in massive loss of life.
Already, in April of this year in Falluja - in low-grade "attrition" operations conducted by the 1 MEF designed to degrade and "soften up" rebel resistance within the city - over 600 Iraqi civilians lost their lives, along with approximately 60 US Marines. In those operations, less than 25 per cent of the town's ground area was actually taken by US troops.
The current offensive is designed to engage all enemy positions within the town and to fully occupy and hold all ground within Falluja - from the current US bridgeheads over the Euphrates river in the west of the city to its eastern limits, along with a number of vital supply routes to Baghdad.
Such operations will involve the fullest use of all of the 1 MEF air assets, including F-18 fighter jets, AC 130 gunships and Cobra and Apache attack helicopters. Such aircraft are equipped with an array of weaponry, ranging from air-launched "smart" munitions to free-fall 500lb and 1000lb "dumb" bombs, along with helicopter-borne missile systems and 20mm and 30mm automatic cannons capable of firing depleted uranium tipped rounds.
These assets will be used in the coming days in combination with US ground troops seeking to achieve the maximum exploitation of fire-power within Falluja's narrow streets and alleyways.
Using massed armour alongside dismounted infantry with close air support, US troops may be forced to engage in house-to-house and street-by-street combat in order to root out insurgents over the next 48 to 72 hours.
At this critical juncture and in such circumstances, with up to 100,000 Iraqis believed to be still trapped within the city, civilian and military casualties may well run into the thousands or even tens of thousands in the coming days and weeks.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer. He currently lectures in the School of Media, DIT and is a fellow of the Inter University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, Loyola University, Chicago.