July was a scorcher but August so far hasn't lived up to that. The truth is that August can be undependable.
Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, it turns out to be the wettest month of the year, on average, in many parts; the rain is infrequent compared to other months, but when it comes it is often heavy and thundery, with large amounts accumulating relatively quickly. This was demonstrated in many parts of the country over the weekend.
Twenty years ago, August 1986 brought disaster. Strictly speaking, Hurricane Charley was not a hurricane by the time it reached our shores. A deep depression, Charley's extratropical reincarnation, arrived early on Sunday, August 25th. Its winds were not exceptional, but throughout the day it deluged unprecedented quantities of rain on south and east of Ireland, breaking an entire ensemble of long-established records and leaving widespread and devastating flooding in its wake.
By way of contrast, 30 years ago, in the glorious, youthful summer of 1976, we basked in endless sunshine. Younger folk will not have forgotten the magic of August 1995, the driest, warmest and sunniest August since the mid- 19th century; weather records toppled everywhere, to the extent that every August since - although some have not been bad - has seemed by comparison, a disappointment.
Will this year be any better? St Swithin, perhaps, is worth a backward glance, since the saint's proverbial 40 days will reign until August 24th. The general character of the weather around St Swithin's Day may sometimes be a rough guide for what to expect for the remainder of the summer. And the days before and after July 15th this year were gloriously sunny and dry.
For a more scientific outlook, we in this part of the world tend to look towards the UK Met Office, the nearest practitioner of "seasonal forecasting" - but at the moment it is not particularly helpful. "Latest indications," it tells us, "support a bias towards a continuation of above-average temperatures. Although mean temperatures are forecast to be above normal, some cooler spells are expected." Translated it seems to say: "Sure, you wouldn't know at all what it might be doing, so you wouldn't."
Strangely enough, the forecast for a decade hence seems rather clearer. Climate-change experts tell us that the trend over the next 50 years in these parts will be for wetter winters and for drier and much hotter summers, with the freakish conditions experienced over continental Europe in the last few years becoming gradually the norm.