Letter from Sydney: If the Australian electorate decides the economy and national security are the most important issues to them, it is likely that the Liberal/National coalition will remain in power after the October 9th federal election, writes Padraig Collins
However, if they decide that health and education are what matters most, Labour is likely to return to power for the first time since 1996.
The voters have made it clear that they trust the Coalition more on the economy and security, and Labour more on health and schooling. And both sides made clear as soon as the poll was called that this election is all about trust.
"Who do you trust to keep the economy strong . . . Who do you trust to lead the fight on Australia's behalf against international terrorism?" Prime Minister Mr John Howard said.
"People don't trust this government anymore. It's a government that's been dishonest for too long," said Labour leader Mr Mark Latham.
Cliches about the election being "too close to call" and "on a knife edge" are flying around, but in this case they are true.Barring an unprecedented event, it really is going to be won and lost by a handful of seats.
A swing of just 1.5 per cent will mean the Coalition lose eight seats and the power to govern in their own right. A 2.3 per cent swing will mean a further five seats lost and Labour winning power.
But with low unemployment (5.7 per cent), inflation (2.5 per cent) and interest (the average mortgage rate is 7 per cent), a lot of Australians will wonder why they should change a government that has had a steady hand on the economy.
Since Mr Latham was elected as Labour leader last December the party has sought to portray him as the young (he's 43), energetic alternative to an old, tired Howard (he's 65).
But there has been less of that since Latham spent three days in hospital last month. The fact that Howard is regularly seen on television outpacing protesters on his morning constitutional has not helped either.
But Latham was able to turn his bout with pancreatitis (the cause of which was unknown) somewhat to his advantage by insisting on using a public hospital, thus reinforcing the belief that Labour is better on health issues.
And again it all comes down to the issue of trust. Labour released a document called Truth Overboard - 27 Lies Told By John Howard And Counting.
The title refers to the claim that the prime minister deliberately lied before the 1991 election when he said that asylum-seekers had thrown their children overboard from a ship in Australian waters.
A former senior public servant, Mr Mike Scrafton, recently revealed that he told Howard three days before the November 2001 election that there was no evidence that children had been thrown overboard. Scrafton took, and passed, a polygraph test on this issue. The prime minister refused to do so.
Labour has said that the election was called earlier than necessary to avoid further embarrassing revelations about the 'children overboard' issue in a Senate inquiry.
Labour's defence spokesman Mr Kim Beazley, said of Howard: "Can you rely on his word when he talks about things such as funding for public hospitals, about access to higher education . . . People cannot trust John Howard's word . . . He'll say anything to get himself elected".
Several websites have sprung up to portray the prime minister as a serial liar. The one which led the way, www.johnhowardlies.com, claims that it "catalogues the lies, distortions, untruths and misrepresentations that are being peddled to us".
Under statements from Howard such as: "I owe the Australian people the obligation to be truthful", the site alleges that "John Howard and his ministers have a long history of lying, misleading and misrepresenting the truth".
Those who followed the Olympics closely will be aware that Australia lost out on a rowing medal because a rower collapsed from exhaustion during the race.
One of her colleagues rather unsportingly threatened to throw her out of the boat.
The phrase "if you're not rowing, get out of the boat" has begun to gain some currency as a result.
John Howard will be rowing furiously for the entire general election campaign.