Aznar's victory gives him scope for changes

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mr Jose-Maria Aznar, gave very few clues yesterday as to how his unexpected decisive victory in Sunday…

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mr Jose-Maria Aznar, gave very few clues yesterday as to how his unexpected decisive victory in Sunday's general elections would affect the policy of his new Partido Popular (PP) government. The one certainty is that the size of his majority - seven seats - gives him a freedom he has not enjoyed before.

He did give a significant signal on election night that he would embrace dialogue with "all social sectors". He also told his supporters that he would govern for "all Spaniards", and not just those who had voted for him. The message was clearly meant for such groups as trade unionists and regional nationalists, who were watching the arrival of Spain's first post-Franco centre-right majority government with some anxiety.

Mr Aznar's last administration did engage more positively with trade unions than most observers had imagined possible. He also proved surprisingly flexible ideologically, in his willingness to make deals with both Catalan and Basque nationalists - when his minority government needed their support.

Before the election, Mr Aznar had said that even if he won an absolute majority, he would still like to associate centre-right Catalan nationalists with his government.

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The collapse of the Communist vote on Sunday leaves the Catalans as the third-biggest force in parliament, with 15 seats. While the PP is ideologically hostile to regional nationalism, both parties have much in common in the economic and social fields.

He will have a more difficult time with Basque nationalists, and they with him. The Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) has been isolated by the breakdown of the ETA ceasefire, which it had helped to negotiate, and may have to call early autonomous elections.

The PP's own vote surged in the Basque country on Sunday, giving it a majority in three Basque cities. Mr Aznar may be tempted to persevere in a confrontational approach, and attempt to displace the PNV as the biggest force in Basque politics. The potential for exacerbating the conflict, already at crisis point, is considerable.

Regarding his cabinet, Reuters reported yesterday that Mr Aznar plans to move his successful and prominent Economics Minister, Mr Rodrigo Rato, to foreign affairs. He would replace Mr Abel Matutes, who played a controversial role in the Pinochet case and is resigning for health reasons.

Reuters also reports that Mr Aznar's belligerent first deputy prime minister, Mr Alvarez Cascos, is likely to be dropped from the cabinet. This would confirm Mr Aznar's intention to continue moving the PP from the right into the centre.

Mr Aznar made many promises during his campaign to both pensioners and women. Both groups will no doubt be watching closely to see if he still feels he needs to deliver.