THE BALKANS: The Balkan states are bracing themselves today for another blow to their EU aspirations, as the Netherlands looks set to follow France in rejecting the bloc's beleaguered constitution, writes Daniel McLaughlin in Budapest
The French vote against the treaty sent shivers through Romania and Bulgaria, which are striving to join the EU in 2007, and former Yugoslav states which fear Brussels will now shelve their accession hopes as it struggles to get its own house in order.
Much Balkan media coverage of the French and Dutch referendums has focused on their apparent "enlargement fatigue", manifested in fierce debate over how to cope with competition from cheaper labour in the EU's eight new central European members.
That competition, which has seen many major Western firms relocate operations to countries like Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, will only increase when Romania and Bulgaria are able to offer even cheaper land, property and workers to the EU market.
Having been warned that failure to reduce corruption and increase competition could force a one-year postponement of accession, officials in Bucharest and Sofia now know they must not offer any ammunition to the emboldened critics of enlargement.
"Now every member state will look very closely at how Bulgaria and Romania are fulfilling commitments . . . and they will be stricter," said Gergana Noutcheva, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies.
Oana Marinescu, a spokeswoman for Romania's government, also admitted: "The French vote on May 29th could lead to an increase in demands on Romania while the European Commission makes its evaluation."
The Romanian government issued a statement to calm public concern that membership could now be derailed, while Bulgarian foreign minister Solomon Passy declared: "We have entered the most difficult stage of the EU accession process. That's why it is imperative that Bulgaria's course should stay unwavering in its rhythm, aim and speed."
But as Romania and Bulgaria agreed to co-ordinate their final, crucial steps towards membership, neighbouring states that are behind them in the EU queue tried to sound upbeat, amid fears that the train for Brussels might leave without them.
"The idea of a united Europe is not under threat," Croatian prime minister Ivo Sanader declared on national radio. "I do not expect that the result of the French referendum will have a negative impact on Croatia's accession."
While Croatia hopes to join the EU in 2009, the ambitions of Bosnia, Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania are much farther from fulfilment, and could be hampered by wrangling over the constitution, according to Serbian president Boris Tadic.
"The French referendum represents an important moment for the future of Europe but doesn't signify the end of integration. It could only cause a change of pace," he said. "The negotiations [ between Belgrade and Brussels] will not be interrupted because Europe will not be complete without the Balkans."
But the optimism of Balkan leaders was hardly bolstered by Joaquin Almunia, the EU's commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, who warned that "a lack of clarity about future enlargement" of the Union could disturb the currency markets of candidate countries like Croatia and Turkey.
There are even signs that the issue of expansion could drive a stake between "old" and "new" Europe: between founder states of the EU which fear competition from cheaper labour; and central European newcomers that see financial rewards in bringing their neighbours into the single market.
After meeting his Hungarian counterpart in Budapest this week, Polish prime minister Marek Belka caught the mood of "new Europe" when he insisted: "I am convinced that, regardless of what has happened, enlargement must continue at the same pace."