MIDDLE EAST: The US and EU must encourage Hamas away from violence, writes Nuala Haughey
The spectacular landslide victory for Hamas in the parliamentary elections in the West Bank and Gaza has propelled the armed radical Islamic movement into the mainstream of Palestinian politics and radically recast political dynamics in the region.
Hamas's resounding triumph has defied polls and pundits alike, giving an unrepentant militant movement untested in national politics an unprecedented mandate to govern the unruly Palestinian territories.
However, the stinging defeat of the once-dominant Fatah movement only complicates future efforts to revive already-moribund peace efforts with an Israeli administration showing increasingly unilateralist tendencies having refused to negotiate even with the more moderate Fatah, led by President Mahmoud Abbas.
The electoral upset also brings to the fore a crisis facing western governments that have uncomfortably straddled policies of encouraging Palestinian democratisation while shunning the Islamic group, which is listed in the US and EU as a terrorist organisation.
Even before the official results were finally declared last night, opposition by Israeli and western governments to Hamas's participation in government had reached a deafening chorus.
"I don't see how you can be a partner in peace if you advocate a destruction of a country as part of your platform," said US president George Bush. UN secretary general Kofi Annan said there was "a fundamental contradiction between carrying weapons and sitting in parliament".
It remains to be seen whether western governments will actually cut ties with - or funding to - a Palestinian Authority dominated or led by Hamas.
Nicolas Pelham, a Jerusalem-based senior analyst with the International Crisis Group think-tank, urges the West to adopt a policy of "gradual, conditional engagement" with Hamas to encourage it to choose politics over violence.
"If the EU and the US sever ties with the Palestinian Authority, you are going to see an authority under Hamas which looks increasingly towards the East and which becomes increasingly dominated by an Islamist agenda," he said.
A big question is whether Hamas's national political debut will moderate its behaviour and set it on a course followed by other armed movements which have transformed themselves into purely political actors, including the IRA and even the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Liberation Organisation.
Beneath Hamas's rhetoric and bluster, the organisation has shown an increasingly pragmatic side with its adherence to an unofficial ceasefire for the past year and talk of a longer-term truce in the somewhat unlikely eventuality of an Israeli withdrawal.
Hamas has hinted it has not ruled out revising its charter which calls for the destruction of Israel and even eventually engaging in negotiations with its sworn enemy.
While the armed group which had dispatched scores of suicide bombers still does not officially recognise Israel's right to exist, its very participation in the Palestinian Authority established under the Oslo process amounts to a de facto recognition of its Jewish neighbour.
Hamas continues to advocate armed resistance along with political participation, but its members have also said that resistance can take other political forms, "not just bang-bang".
The progressive wing of Hamas will also be acutely aware that opinion polls show a large majority of Palestinians do not want a return to armed conflict or the introduction of Sharia law.
At a domestic level, exactly how Hamas will use its new political clout remains to be seen. Voters who flocked to the movement were attracted by its clean image, seeing it a principled alternative to the perceived corruption of Fatah during its decade in parliament.
These voters will now seek results. While the movement has in the past year proven itself highly efficient in local government, it will face the tough reality of ruling an impoverished non-sovereign statelet under the harsh conditions of Israeli occupation and internal insecurity.
The ideal electoral outcome for Hamas would have been for it to be a junior partner in a coalition government, allowing the more moderate Fatah to handle ministerial portfolios, including relations with Israel. This would have left the door open for the US and EU to continue funding to the Palestinian Authority.
Hamas's chief candidate, Ismail Haniya, said yesterday it did not want to form a government on its own and would instead seek talks with President Mahmoud Abbas from Fatah.
Fatah's Saeb Ereket ruled out such a coalition yesterday.