LATVIA and LITHUANIAconsider Ireland's success in reversing emigration trends a suitable model to follow, writes Mary Fitzgerald.
In Baltic states like Latvia and Lithuania, few subjects are likely to stir more impassioned debate these days than migration. With politicians, economists, employers and the public fretting over the exodus westward, it was no surprise that the issue proved a recurring theme during President Mary McAleese's state visit to the two countries last week.
While there are no official statistics, Latvian and Lithuanian officials estimate that tens, if not hundreds, of thousands have left in search of work since the two countries joined the EU in 2004. Many of those moved to Ireland.
In the heady months following the Baltic states accession, the widespread assumption was that such migration would be temporary. Young Balts would spend a few years abroad, the thinking went, before returning home to plough all their newly acquired language skills and business savvy into reinvigorating moribund domestic economies.
President McAleese stuck to the same script last week, telling audiences in Riga and Vilnius that the nature of emigration had changed. "It's a very different type," she said. "It's not the old pattern of leaving and never coming back." In almost every speech, she was careful to add that she believed most Latvians and Lithuanians working in Ireland would eventually return home. However many in Latvia and Lithuania remain unconvinced and fear the consequences for the economic and social fabric of their countries.
The trend means "the decline of the country's intellectual potential, loss of investment in people, [ and the] threat of a deceleration of technological progress", Lithuanian foreign minister Petras Vaitiekunas told a recent conference on migration issues.
The issue is a particularly thorny one in Latvia, where people struggle with rising prices on an average monthly minimum wage that is one of the lowest in the EU. Stories of a "lost generation" abound, from economists and employers grumbling about the shortage of skilled workers to sociologists deploring the thousands of so-called "mushroom orphans" left in the care of grandparents while parents work abroad.
National pride has been dented too - Latvians were aghast a year ago when Olympic biathlete Jekabs Nakums announced on national television that he was leaving to wash cars in Ireland.
Latvia's uneasy relationship with its sizeable Russian minority further complicates the issue, with many worried about the effect emigration may have on the country's ethnic balance.
President Vaira Vike-Freiberga admitted at the end of last week's state visit that she did not share President McAleese's optimism that most would return. "Ideally, we would like to see a free-flow in both directions without bleeding the population of our country," Ms Vike-Freiberga told The Irish Times. "It's a fine line to tread."
Following an address to academics and diplomats at Latvia University, President McAleese was challenged on her positive view of migration from the Baltic states. One man queried how Ms McAleese could be so sure most Latvians would return. Another wanted to know how Latvia could learn from Irish Government initiatives aimed at luring Irish emigres back to their homeland.
In examining ways of stemming the flow, both the Latvian and Lithuanian governments consider Ireland's success in reversing emigration trends a suitable model to follow.
"Ireland used all the opportunities offered by Europe and we would like to learn the secret of that success," Mr Vaitiekunas told The Irish Times. "Your use of EU structural funds and efforts to modernise the country provide us with an outstanding example of what we could use as a model for our own development."
While continuing migration has raised concerns in Lithuania, diplomatic sources said the issue was not as pronounced as in neighbouring Latvia. With a much larger population, the impact of emigration from Lithuania is not as stark and its economy is in better shape. "We see migration not just as a negative," Mr Vaitiekunas said.
"There are positives too, such as gaining knowledge, experience and opportunities for economic co-operation."
Both governments however acknowledge that any attempt to emulate Ireland's experience will be a struggle. "Polls show that to motivate people not to move to other EU states or to come home, wages would have to be an average of three times higher than they are at present," Latvian foreign minister Artis Pabriks told a recent Baltic assembly conference.
With minimum wages barely a tenth of their western European equivalents, closing the pay gap in countries like Latvia could take decades.
"In rural Latvia there are many villages where all the young people have left for Ireland or Britain," says Laima Muktupavela, a writer whose book recounting her experience picking mushrooms in Ireland has become a national bestseller. "A common attitude among young Latvians is, 'Why wait?'. Only time will tell how many will return."