A YEAR ago, when the BSE crisis broke, Lorcan Blake, head of AIB's agricultural policy division, promised his organisation would be "positive in approach and reasonable in attitude' to the problems facing beef farmers and the industry in general.
A year on, Mr Blake is still being patient, waiting for what he calls a new set of norms to take over in the industry so that farmers, processors and the industry can plan ahead.
The year had not delivered all the negative things that had been expected, he said. However the bankers' nightmare, "negative equity", still loomed on the horizon.
Negative equity, applied to beef farmers, is when the value of their stock becomes less than their borrowings. Twelve months on, that remained a concern, Mr Blake said.
"The outcome over the year is not as severe as we were predicting because farm incomes did not decline by the 10 to 15 per cent which was predicted because of EU compensation," he said.
"While farm income figures are still being assessed, they seem to have fallen by 7.5 per cent. The EU compensation of £70 million in June was a major contributor to easing those problems," he said.
He added that more compensation was due to livestock farmers by way of direct compensation and as a result of the Irish green pound revaluation, which should bring an additional £20 million.
Another factor which helped - lessen the fall in farm incomes, he said, was the increased volume of cattle processed.
But, overall, many farmers are experiencing pain. He remains concerned about the number of cattle remaining on farms which will have to be sold this autumn, when he expects a record kill.
"Our policy is to provide continuing support both to farmers and the industry in general, and we are going to remain positive in approach and reasonable in attitude," he said.
Concerns remain, however, about the future. "The industry has not yet settled down and is still shifting. It could be well into 1998 before these norms, which will allow proper forward planning, will come into force and provide viable margins," he said.
He said farmers might be forced to look at different livestock systems in future because of the changed nature of the industry, which might not accommodate the traditional systems.
"We will continue to treat each case individually as we await the new norms, which must emerge at the end of this," he said.