US:Former prime minister Ehud Barak yesterday grabbed the initiative ahead of a June 12th run-off for leader of the centre-left Labor Party, when he bucked the opinion polls to emerge at the head of the pack in a fiercely contested party primary.
The polls correctly predicted that the gap between Mr Barak and Ami Ayalon, the other frontrunner, would be five per cent, except they gave the race to Mr Ayalon. With all the votes in Monday's primary counted by early yesterday morning, Mr Ayalon emerged with 31 per cent and Mr Barak with 36 per cent - short of the 40 per cent required to secure a victory in the first round of voting.
Party leader and defence minister Amir Peretz, badly damaged by his handling of the war in Lebanon last summer, was ousted yesterday, but he garnered an unexpected 22 per cent, which could make him the kingmaker in round two. Aides to Mr Barak and Mr Ayalon were making contact with Mr Peretz's staff yesterday in the hope of winning his backing. Mr Peretz, who sharply attacked Mr Barak during the campaign, would not be drawn yesterday on who he planned to support.
The outgoing Labor leader, who made it clear prior to Monday's vote that he would not remain in the defence ministry even if he won, has had his eye on the finance ministry. His decision on which candidate to back could ultimately be determined by whom he believes has the best chance of procuring the post for him in Mr Olmert's government.
Whoever wins on June 12th is likely to fill the defence ministry post that Mr Peretz has said he will vacate and which has been promised to Labor as part of its coalition agreement with prime minister Ehud Olmert. While both Mr Barak and Mr Ayalon called on Mr Olmert to resign in the wake of a damning report by a government-appointed panel on his handling of the war in Lebanon, neither has said he would pull Labor out of the ruling coalition.
While Mr Ayalon has been more forthright, saying he will not serve under Mr Olmert, he is aware that most Labor members strongly oppose leaving the government - a move that could precipitate early elections.
With polls predicting victory for Benjamin Netanyahu and his centre-right Likud party, Labor members fear an election would condemn them to the opposition benches.
While Mr Ayalon (61) is a political newcomer - he has never held a ministerial post - the former chief of Israel's internal security service has tried to portray himself as representing a new, no-nonsense style of politics.
With polls consistently showing the Labor Party under his leadership winning more seats in a general election than under Mr Barak, he has been telling party members that they must back him if they want to have any chance of governing the country.
Mr Barak (65), a former army chief, defence minister and foreign minister, has the edge when it comes to experience, but he has had to contend with the stain of an unsuccessful term as prime minister, between 1999 and 2001, which ended with the collapse of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and the second intifada uprising.
He has been trying to play the experience card, telling party members - like many Israelis, traumatised by the war in Lebanon - that they should "think hard about who you want more in times of war".