Deaglán de Bréadún, Foreign Affairs Correspondent, offers a guide to the issues in the Nice Treaty
A senior American diplomat is reported to have said that, to understand the Nice Treaty you had be "either a genius or French". But while the document negotiated in the French Mediterranean city is undoubtedly complex, its basic implications are relatively straightforward.
Q. Why are we having a second referendum on the same treaty?
A. Instead of seeking to change the treaty, the Government has opted to change the domestic political context, with the establishment of the Forum on Europe to promote public debate, securing an EU declaration affirming Irish neutrality and providing for greater parliamentary scrutiny of European issues. This was seen as a more viable option than reopening negotiations with the other 14 member-states.
Q. What is the aim of the treaty?
A. The main purpose is to change the EU institutions before the admission of new member-states. Pro-Nice campaigners say it is about minor, but necessary, adjustments to make the enlarged EU more manageable. Opponents see a deeper agenda at work, with the ultimate aim of creating a militarised superstate.
Q. Who will be members of this enlarged EU?
A. If Nice is ratified, 10 "accession countries" are due to be admitted in 2004: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta. Meanwhile, Bulgaria and Romania are waiting in the wings, and Turkey has candidate status but no start-date for accession negotiations.
Q. What's this about Ireland losing its commissioner?
A. The Commission has 20 members from the 15 member-states; the largest five states have nominated two each. Under Nice, each state gets to nominate only one commissioner. When and if the EU expands to 27, the member-states will unanimously decide how many commissioners there should be, but there must be fewer than 27.
Q. Will this State still have the same number of MEPs?
A. There'll be 12 instead of 15. At present there are 626 MEPs, and a limit has been set of 732 after enlargement.
Q. Has the treaty got any military or defence implications?
A. Nice gives a legal, treaty basis to the Political and Security Committee (PSC), already functioning and composed of ambassadors from each member-state. It was set up to exercise "political control and strategic direction of crisis management operations" by the Rapid Reaction Force. Ireland will contribute 850 troops to the 60,000-strong RRF, which proceeds regardless of what happens to the Nice Treaty.
The Amsterdam Treaty of 1997 envisaged a key role in EU defence for the Western European Union, founded in 1948 to promote defence and security co-operation (Ireland has observer status). But, with the development of the RRF, the WEU has receded in importance and is effectively sidelined by Nice in favour of the PSC.
Q. How has the Government responded to concerns about neutrality?
A. The proposed constitutional amendment to ratify Nice now includes an additional provision excluding Ireland from participating, without a further referendum, in a mutual defence pact, whereby an attack on one EU member-state would be an attack on all. At the European summit in Seville last June, the Government and the EU leaders issued declarations reaffirming Irish neutrality. Critics say neutrality is still under threat - through membership of the RRF and NATO's Partnership for Peace - and that the declarations have no legal standing.
Q. Why did immigration become an issue?
A. The No side highlighted the fact that, after the rejection of Nice in June 2001, the government told the candidate countries that free movement of their workers into Ireland would be permitted as soon as they joined the EU. Most EU countries imposed restrictions for up to seven years. Some anti-Nice campaigners claimed there would be a "flood" of immigrant workers and the Government has since pointed out that work permits may still be required if the economic situation is unfavourable.
Q. How does Nice affect Ireland's position in EU decision-making?
A. The Council of Ministers consists of ministers from each member-state and makes all the major EU policy decisions, sometimes in conjunction with the European Parliament. The faces at the table vary, depending on portfolio. Each member-state has a specific number of votes, weighted to reflect population. Currently, Ireland has three votes out of 87, the same as Denmark and Finland. Nice increases the total number of votes for existing member-states to 237, with Ireland getting seven. The weight of the larger states in the voting system has been enhanced to reflect their populations and compensate them for the loss of their second commissioner. Votes have also been allocated to the candidate countries. When and if the EU reaches 27 members, the total votes on the council will be 345.
Q. Will we lose our veto on key EU decisions?
A. Some decisions of the Council of Ministers must be unanimous; others may be taken by Qualified Majority Voting (QMV). At present, 62 weighted votes out of a total 87 are required for a proposal to be carried. In an EU of 27 member-states, 255 weighted votes would be required out of 345. Nice proposes to extend QMV to 30 new areas of decision-making, such as the appointment of members of the Commission. But there are some areas where unanimity will still be required, including the all-important issue of taxation.
Q. Won't it be difficult to reach consensus in an enlarged EU?
A. Enhanced co-operation (also known as "flexibility") allows a limited number of member-states to proceed together on a particular issue, using the institutions of the EU, where others are unwilling or unable to participate for the time being. Nice proposes that the minimum number of member-states required, even after enlargement, would be eight, and it removes in most cases the right of individual member-states to exercise a veto on the arrangement. Enhanced co-operation may not apply to military or defence issues or to the Common Agricultural Policy.
Q. Why has Article 133 become so controversial?
A. EU states take a common position in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and other forums where international trade is discussed. Although the Commission presents this common position, it is often formulated on the Council of Ministers or in the Article 133 Committee, where all member-states are represented. Nice attempts to extend the EU's remit from traditional industrial or agricultural matters to services and intellectual property. The No side complains that the treaty opens the door to large-scale privatisation of public services with consequent job losses. Treaty supporters dismiss these fears and say the real threat to privatise public services comes from individual governments, not the EU.
Q. What happens if there is another No vote?
A. The treaty cannot come into force unless ratified in all 15 member-states. There are widespread unofficial reports of a "Plan B" involving individual accession treaties for each of the candidate countries and incorporating the less controversial elements of Nice, such as the allocation of seats in the European Parliament and the reweighting of votes on the Council of Ministers, which would not necessarily require a referendum here. There could be an attempt to secure a declaration by the Dáil that the No vote did not mean a rejection of enlargement although Government figures are saying this would be unconstitutional. The Amsterdam Treaty provided for the admission of five new member-states: it is not clear how these would be chosen.