Battleground Seats:The situation for both parties has been complicated by the surge behind the Liberal Democrats
ELECTIONS IN the end are decided by numbers, and Election 2010 on May 6th will be measured by three percentages: 1.6 per cent, 4.3 per cent and 6.9 per cent.
The first figure is the swing away from Labour that is required for it to lose its overall majority but remain the largest single party in a hung House of Commons when newly elected MPs gather there 12 days later.
The second, 4.3 per cent, is the swing from Labour to the Conservative Party that is required for the Conservatives, now out of power since 1997, to become the largest single party.
The third, and anything over it, is the drift away from Labour to the Conservatives that Tory leader David Cameron needs in order to have a bare majority, or, better for him, one that would allow him to govern subsequently.
The situation for both parties has now been complicated by the surge behind the Liberal Democrats, following its leader Nick Clegg’s performance in the first of three TV leaders’ debates last week.
During the long night of May 6/7th, a number of constituencies will be closely watched for signals that Cameron is heading for such a majority, or whether Labour’s Gordon Brown has pulled off a near miracle.
First, the low-hanging fruit for the Conservatives: in Finchley and Golders Green, the party needs just a 0.05 per cent swing in its favour to overturn the paper-thin 31-vote majority left by retiring Labour MP, Rudi Vis.
The battle in Sittingbourne and Sheppey in Kent should not take too much longer to sort out. Outgoing MP Derek Wyatt, ex-English international and Barbarians rugby player, has stood down.
In the 2005 election this was one of the most marginal seats in the country, held by Wyatt with only 79 votes, though his successor-candidate, local councillor Angela Harrison, is unlikely to be celebrating victory.
Equally, Rochester and Strood, also in Kent, should fall easily to the Conservatives. Outgoing MP Bob Marshall-Andrews, who famously conceded defeat in 2005, only to find out later that he had actually survived, has retired.
The seat this time should easily fall to local Tory councillor and former banker, Mark Reckless, who has run twice before against Marshall-Andrews, rather than to Labour’s offering, Teresa Murray.
However, greater attention will be focused on constituencies such as Stevenage in Hertfordshire, where Labour MP Barbara Follett, who has served since 1997, is stepping down, though her reputation was shredded in the MPs’ expenses scandal.
A 4.25 per cent swing here would show that the Conservatives are heading to be the largest party, though the Tories themselves believe it would have to be a lot higher if it is to be a sign that the currents are behind them nationally.
Tooting in South London, a Labour-held seat in the Tory borough of Wandsworth, currently held by Labour minister Sadiq Khan, is another that would indicate if the Conservatives are on course.
Khan is vulnerable given Labour’s general lack of popularity and the demographic changes that have taken place since 2005, with the Balham and Earlsfield districts becoming more gentrified.
Sefton Central, a relatively prosperous constituency between Southport and Liverpool that was once a safe Tory heartland until it fell to the Social Democratic Party in an 1981 byelection, is another marker constituency.
Bellwether seats are not what they were, given declining loyalties to party brands outside of the core areas, but there are still a few left such as Dartford in Kent and Chorley in Lancashire, which have been won by the national victors since 1964.
The same used to be said, way back to the 1951 election, about Luton South, which has a high proportion of ethnic minorities, including Irish and Muslims. These have been represented up to now by Labour’s Margaret Moran.
Though she is not running again, her embroilment in the expenses scandal where she was found to have claimed for £22,000 worth of dry-rot in her second home, has put her party badly on the defensive even before the campaign gets into full swing.
But it is places such as the East Midlands where there will truly be a battle.
Labour won 24 of the 44 constituencies spread in and around Nottingham, Derby and Leicester in 2005, but 14 now look vulnerable.
So far, a dozen outgoing MPs have stood down there, including former defence secretary Geoff Hoon in Ashfield, who was deeply unpopular even with his own constituents, and former health secretary Patricia Hewitt in Leicester West.
The destination of Labour-held seats such as Loughborough, Leicester South, Corby, South Derbyshire, Erewash and the Nottinghamshire seats of Gedling, Broxtowe and Sherwood will offer significant pointers on the night.
The East Midlands, and its neighbouring sibling, West Midlands, are among the most competitive in the election, where more than half of the seats are up for grabs, according to the electoral reform society.
The West Midlands has always had a tendency to paddle its own canoe, politically speaking, before it produced Labour gains in its ill-fated 1992 campaign, and then saw constituencies fall like skittles into Tony Blair’s hands in 1997.
More recently the Conservatives did regain some past-held strongholds, but this time the party has targeted the scalps of outgoing MPs such as former home secretary Jacqui Smith – another struggling to recover from the expenses row.
Given that they only need a 2.3 per cent swing to unseat Smith, her crown must fall if the Tories are to have any chance of ousting Labour, as must the nearby constituencies of Burton, Stafford and Worcester.
West of Birmingham, the Conservatives must also win the Black Country seats of Stourbridge, Halesowen Rowley Regis, Dudley North and South, Wolverhampton South West, while Labour’s Bill Olner in Nuneaton is at risk if the Tory tide does turn.
Birmingham Edgbaston, a constituency that has the unique record of being represented by a woman MP since 1953, is likely to be so represented again, but this time by Conservative Deirdre Alden, rather than the outgoing Labour Gisela Stuart.
However, Stuart, who has held on twice before against strong prevailing winds, has borrowed heavily from the community organiser model pioneered by US president Barack Obama in his campaign, so she will put on a stronger fight than many of her colleagues.
The 1997 Labour victory is remembered by most for the 4am downfall of Conservative Michael Portillo, along with a third of the Conservative cabinet – this time the attention will again focus on possible “decapitations” of Labour ministers.
Chancellor of the exchequer Alistair Darling is fighting to hold on to a small majority in Edinburgh South, but a rise in Liberal Democrat support now could actually help him fend off a strong Conservative challenge.
In Exeter, in southwest England, culture secretary Ben Bradshaw has campaigned hard to protect his seat, but the reverse “Portillo moment” would be the loss of Gordon Brown’s key ally, Ed Balls in Morley and Outwood in West Yorkshire.
Balls is hated, and that is not too strong a word for it, by Conservatives, and, indeed, by many in his own ranks. He strongly opposed the boundary review which left him with a constituency that is three-quarters new to him.
For now, it must be seen as a long-shot for the Tories, though the party has taken pleasure in stepping up its campaign there if only to keep Balls nervous. But the fact that so many votes may go to the British National Party should see him home safe.