The Government launch of its campaign for the Treaty of Nice went smoothly and with fanfare this week, but behind the scenes things are not as confident. There is the possibility that the people could reject the treaty. It's not a scenario any of the political parties, bar the Greens and Sinn Fein, want to contemplate, so, provided the foot-and-mouth crisis allows the referendum to go ahead on May 31st, there will be a flurry of pro-Europe campaigning between now and then. But that is not as simple as it looks either. The McKenna judgment means State funds must be divided equally between both sides, so while politicians can campaign as much as they like for Nice, Ministers have to be very careful about spending. They are not happy with the situation and often point to the lunacy, particularly with the referendum on the Belfast Agreement, of having to set out the pro and anti sides in all official literature. On that occasion, the Government got senior counsel to give both sides of the argument. This time, it looked at having the Referendum Commission divide a block of money between the two sides and letting them get on with it. But while the pro-Europeans are bigger and slicker, the proposal was dropped because it was felt the anti-Europe camp would get so much money it could create a huge impetus which would bolster not just its referendum campaign but other campaigns too. Instead, the Government will produce what it calls neutral literature because, as one Minister told Quidnunc, how could you put the argument in favour of the death penalty - also for vote on May 31st.
We are the only member-state having a referendum on Nice. If we reject it, a senior Eurocrat told Quidnunc, there will be both positive and negative consequences. Positively, it will force the whole establishment - political, academic, business - to rethink its commitment to Europe instead of leaving it to chance, and European institutions, such as the Parliament and Council, will have to take more care about our concerns and appreciate that we cannot be bought off with funds. Negatively, we will have destroyed our reputation as the most pro-European of them all, as we reject expansion for selfish and not-well-thought-out reasons; relations Europewide will be seriously damaged and the coming benefits of trade and investment with East and Central Europe will be lost as we block their entry.