Mr David Trimble and Mr Mark Durkan may be asked to head a "shadow administration" in Belfast following Monday's expected suspension of the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly, write Frank Millar, in London, and Mark Brennock
This emerged last night as the Secretary of State, Dr John Reid, prepared to sign the Order restoring Northern Ireland to Direct Rule from Westminster. While Dr Reid insisted yesterday he would announce his decision "when it is made", British government sources suggested this would "most likely" be on Monday.
London is anxious to avoid any last-minute "theatre" on the floor of the Stormont Assembly, and a decision by Monday would remove any possibility of an Ulster Unionist motion for debate the following day proposing Sinn Féin's exclusion from office.
While insisting they had "no expectation of any last-minute surprises", British sources pointed to ongoing meetings in London and Dublin - the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, meets Mr Trimble this morning - and said their desire was to proceed in an orderly manner while "ending the uncertainty".
The suggestion that the outgoing First and Deputy First Ministers might head a shadow administration to assist direct rule ministers was explained last night as necessary to ensure "continuity of policy" following the transfer of power back to London from a fully functioning devolved administration.
One well-placed source told The Irish Times it would also serve as "an important statement of the (British) government's presumption that the Executive will eventually be reinstated."
Less clear was a separate suggestion emanating from political sources in Belfast that there might be "linkage" between the restoration of the Executive - which would clearly require fresh agreement between the Northern Ireland parties - and a decision to proceed with the next Assembly elections, scheduled for May 1st next year.
Downing Street and Northern Ireland Office spokesmen confirmed their understanding that legally the date for the election would be unaffected by any suspension.
Before flying off to Moscow for talks with President Putin about Iraq, the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, made it clear that suspension would result directly from the failure of the republican movement to resolve the ambiguities of a "dual strategy" combining politics and continuing paramilitarism.
Following Mr Blair's meeting with Sinn Féin president Mr Gerry Adams yesterday, British sources suggested the republican leadership "knows there is an issue, and the issue is the future of the IRA." Pressed about IRA disbandment yesterday, Mr Adams told the BBC: "In principle I have no difficulty with that proposition."
Sources close to the Government say their aim is to seek "confidence-building measures" to buttress the Belfast Agreement and encourage unionists and nationalists to work to reinstate the institutions.
The "confidence-building measure" sought from republicans are a substantial further move to put weapons beyond use, an IRA declaration that its war is over or even a commitment to IRA disbandment.
In order to increase national and republican confidence, the Government is pushing for further reform of policing to bring it into line with the Patten report recommendations, as well as a commitment to a further reduction in the security presence in the North.
As in the past, any moves on these issues would have to come together or in a well-choreographed "sequence", the sources say.
However, they remain pessimistic about the prospects of such a deal in the short term, saying that the level of trust among the North's political parties is at a very low point.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, will have talks in Derry later today with Mr Durkan to discuss how to proceed after suspension.
Adams remains upbeat; Ahern opposed to any delay in Assembly poll; How Assembly politicians view the road ahead; Fourth person expected to be charged over raids: page 6