Belgians began voting today in an election expected to replace Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt with the premier of Flanders who wants more power for his Dutch-speaking region.
Mr Verhofstadt is more popular nationwide than main rival Yves Leterme, opinion polls show, but Belgians vote for parties not personalities and Leterme's Christian Democrats are far ahead in Flanders, where 60 per cent of Belgians live.
Reflecting Belgium 's firm linguistic divide, up to 7.7 million voters in the country's francophone and Dutch-speaking communities will elect separate parties that must eventually form a coalition to govern the whole country.
Ten parties have a realistic chance of winning a seat in parliament. Up to six may be part of the next government.
Mr Verhofstadt's liberals and their francophone equivalents have held sway for eight years, but their partnership with the socialist group looks set to end despite an economic boom which sees unemployment at a five-year low.
Analysts say voters have become disillusioned that income tax cuts have not boosted disposable income because of increases of other levies. Nationalist stirrings in Flanders have also helped the opposition there.
In Flanders, from where the prime minister typically comes, the Christian Democrats are expected to win almost 30 per cent of the vote, with the far-right Flemish nationalist Vlaams Belang party in second on 21 percent, according to the latest polls. The ruling liberals and socialists were below 20 per cent.
In French-speaking Wallonia, the Socialist Party should be the winner, albeit with a reduced lead after a series of recent embezzlement scandals in local councils. The most likely national combination appears to be the Flemish Christian Democrats and their francophone sister party with the two socialist groups, although they disagree on whether to create jobs with tax cuts or by more spending on education.
Analysts do not exclude an alliance with the resurgent Greens or one of all three main parties from each linguistic community. This may be needed if more control over labour market policy, justice or health is to be devolved to the regions. No mainstream group will work with the Vlaams Belang.