Berlin may agree to deal on commissioners

GERMAN REACTION: GERMANY MAY agree to let all EU member states keep their EU commissioner as a contribution to resolving the…

GERMAN REACTION:GERMANY MAY agree to let all EU member states keep their EU commissioner as a contribution to resolving the impasse caused by Ireland's No to the Lisbon Treaty.

The indication came on the fringes of the summit in Brussels yesterday which chancellor Angela Merkel said had "carried on" the ratification process.

"The dynamic process for the implementation of Lisbon has been retained," she said, adding that the next steps depend on the response of the Irish Government in October.

Berlin sees another Irish vote as the only way out of the current stand-off, and it is ready to hear suggestions from Dublin on possible opt-outs as part of a renegotiated deal.

READ MORE

Dr Merkel declined to discuss what she would do if a second Lisbon referendum is defeated, ruling out ratification of the treaty.

"We still have some steps to go even if we don't know today where it is headed, because that depends on the Irish response," she said.

There was some disappointment in the German camp that Mr Cowen's analysis of the referendum didn't go deeper into the reasons it failed.

The chancellery is prepared to wail until the autumn for that. "In October the door won't close," said a senior government source, "but it will start closing".

The Germans are anxious for Irish officials to tackle the argument that the treaty was a "backroom deal" by framing it as the successor to the open constitutional treaty process.

Unlike France, Germany doesn't want to be seen as a finger-wagging, larger member state towards Ireland, but it is nevertheless pursuing a strategy of "pressure without pressure".

Behind the scenes, Berlin officials say that, if need be, the question put to Irish voters in any second referendum should be framed as a vote on Ireland's EU future. "The Irish Government should take the bull by the horns and link a second vote with the question of staying in the EU," said Erwin Teufel, a senior figure in Dr Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and member of the the Convention on Europe that drafted the now defunct constitutional treaty.

"I think there'd be no majority for leaving the EU, the Irish know how much they have profited," Mr Teufel said.

None of Dr Merkel's officials dare be that blunt in public, but they expect the Government to make the point to Irish voters that Lisbon compares favourably to the Nice Treaty and addresses some concerns of EU critics. That is where a possible deal on commissioners could come in.

The Nice Treaty foresees a reduction next year in the number of commissioners, possibly to 18. The Lisbon Treaty offers the chance for government ministers to undo that with a unanimous vote, retaining the current rule of one commissioner per member state.

"The way to sell it to Irish voters is: 'Vote Yes to keep your commissioner under Lisbon, vote No to lose your commissioner under Nice'," said a commission diplomat yesterday.

As such a deal would first require ratification of Lisbon, commission watchers suggest the plan to keep the 27-member commission could be regulated in a document before a second Irish vote.

Crucially, there was recognition among German officials yesterday that Berlin's long-term plan to slim down the EU executive - leaving countries without a commissioner for one out of three five-year terms - may have to be sacrificed to save the Lisbon Treaty.

Retaining 27 commissioners would be popular with many EU members states. Nordic countries only grudgingly accepted a slimmer executive; many new members are unwilling to lose their commissioner after just a decade.

On the sidelines of the summit yesterday, German officials worked hard to dispel the idea of putting Dublin in a corner over its Lisbon vote.

Instead, in tandem with president Nicolas Sarkozy of France, Germany worked on other Lisbon doubters yesterday, insisting that Lisbon ratification was a prerequisite for further EU enlargement.

"I agree wholeheartedly with the French president," said Dr Merkel, insisting there would be no "cherry-picking" of an unratified Lisbon Treaty to allow enlargement. It was "inconceivable", she said, for the Nice Treaty to be modified ad hoc to allow further enlargement.