ITALIAN CRISIS:AS BELEAGUERED Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi prepared for further key parliamentary votes, former close ally – and now bitter opponent – speaker of the lower house Gianfranco Fini summed up the drama in Italian politics.
“The government must understand that it is not credible even if it wins in parliament by a vote, because with a majority of one vote you can survive but you cannot govern,” Mr Fini said.
Having defied calls for his resignation for months, Mr Berlusconi came under additional pressure to resign at the weekend. This followed the humiliation of the G20 summit where the international community confirmed its concerns about his handling of the Italian economy by calling on Italy to agree to quarterly visits by the International Monetary Fund.
As the summit ended last Friday, Italian bonds were yet again under pressure with their yield reaching a euro-era high of 6.4 per cent – considered unsustainable by most analysts.
Many commentators suggest that the marketplace’s biggest concern is not the Italian economy, the third biggest in the euro zone, but rather Mr Berlusconi’s ability to steer it through the global crisis. According to a Reuters survey of 10 fund managers, market analysts and strategists last week, the fall of the Berlusconi government would generate a positive market reaction, with bond prices recovering and with the yield “spread” dropping by as much as one percentage point.
When Mr Berlusconi returned to Italy last weekend, he was confronted with three sharp reminders of his difficulties.
First, state president Giorgio Napolitano warned on Friday that Italy is a facing a “credibility” problem. He added that the country must not give “signs of insufficient determination and reliability”.
Second, hundreds of thousands crammed into Piazza San Giovanni in Rome to attend a protest rally organised by the opposition Democratic Party, at which leader Pier Luigi Bersani appeared to indicate a willingness to take part in some form of institutional, cross-party crisis government.
“We’ve had enough of the Great Saviour of the Country, for whom votes matter more than rules and who bases his consensus on the appropriate enemy scapegoat, be it the judiciary, the communists, southerners or immigrants. The future should be based . . . on a government pact for a legislature of reconstruction,” he said.
Third, and arguably the most worrying consideration for Mr Berlsuconi over the weekend, came from trusted allies such as cabinet undersecretary Gianni Letta and People of Freedom (PDL) party organiser Denis Verdini who warned him he may no longer command a parliamentary majority. Unconfirmed reports suggest that anything from 20 to 40 members of the prime minister’s PDL party may be about to jump ship.
It is believed that Mr Letta and Mr Verdini advised the prime minister that, rather than wait for a parliamentary defeat that would place the political initiative in the hands of President Napolitano, he should resign.
However, it would seem Mr Berlusconi has no such intention. “Notwithstanding the defections, and I think a lot of them may still change their minds, we still have the majority in parliament,” he said.
He also dismissed the idea of a cross-party government, implying that if his administration falls, then the alternative should be a general election. The government faces an immediate test in parliament tomorrow when the state accounts for 2010 must be ratified.
Even if it survives that vote, further difficult tests loom next week when basic elements in the “reform plan” presented to EU leaders 10 days ago come before parliament.
As is his wont, Mr Berlusconi is reported to have spent much of the weekend attempting to win over dissident party elements. The result of this, however, may be as predicted by Mr Fini. He can survive, but he cannot govern.