THE INFLUENCE of the so-called “Bertie factor” in Fianna Fáil’s electoral success in 2002 was not as significant as has been commonly believed, according to ground-breaking research into the motivations and behaviours of Irish voters.
The book based on this research, The Irish Voter, concludes that while leaders can help their parties, the effects are marginal, even in the case of the former taoiseach Bertie Ahern.
The detailed research, based on detailed and comprehensive surveys of Irish voters, was carried out over six years by political scientists Prof Michael Marsh of Trinity College Dublin, Prof Richard Sinnott of UCD, John Garry, now at Queens University Belfast, and Fiachra Kennedy of UCD.
In its conclusions, the book states: “ Bertie Ahern enjoyed a huge lead over his rival, Michael Noonan.
“The gap between them was greater than at any previous election in the last 25 years. It is apparent in our analysis that leaders had a limited impact on their party’s fortunes.
“Most had a positive impact, but there is little to suggest that Irish elections are a presidential-style battle between likely leaders of government.”
Prof Marsh expanded on that theme at the launch of the book last night.
He said that leaders remained very important in Irish elections because they are capable of moving 2 to 3 per cent of the vote, which he said can be critical.
Other important findings to emerge from the research is that unlike their counterparts in other countries, with the exception of Taiwan, Irish candidates reach an astounding 80 per cent of voters.
It also showed that individual candidates play a critical role in building and maintaining support for a party.
The impact of choosing a strong candidate can be worth 20 per cent in terms of votes, the authors of the pioneering new study have shown.
“On the question of how many voters are candidate-centred, much of our analysis seemed to indicate that a large minority of voters saw themselves as attracted primarily by candidates and a smaller minority saw themselves as essentially party-centred.”
At the launch last night, Prof Sinnott said that the problems with the accuracy of the electoral register had understated the turnout, but that the downward trend in turnout was still evident, though it was 10 per cent rather than 13 per cent between 1981 and 2002. However, there was a very clear reverse of that downward trend in last year’s election.
The authors also pointed out last night that the stereotypes of the typical Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour voters were no longer clearly evident.
“Fine Gael are not as middle class as we used to think. The most middle class party is the Labour Party,” said Prof Marsh.