Bhutto emerges as a democrat backing coup

Even as soldiers surrounded the residence of the country's prime minister, Mr Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan's opposition leader, Ms …

Even as soldiers surrounded the residence of the country's prime minister, Mr Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan's opposition leader, Ms Benazir Bhutto, was calculating her next move. Poised in front of the television cameras in her self-imposed exile in London several hours later, Ms Bhutto spoke passionately of the "liberals" in her country pushing ahead with democracy; condemned Mr Sharif's government and predicted her return only when free and fair elections were guaranteed.

"Ever since Nawaz Sharif took over he has sought to dismantle democracy. The people believe the man is violating every rule of law," she said. "The armed forces had to protect themselves as an institution."

Yet for all Ms Bhutto's claims to hanker after the ideals of Western democracy, she is a constant source of contradiction when it comes to the detail.

She has "lamented" the weakness of democratic institutions in Pakistan, yet she supports the military-backed coup to remove Mr Sharif from office. She has spoken about the harshness of life for ordinary Pakistanis and believes wor king for Unesco could play a part in her public rehabilitation, while admitting she does not know how many ordinary Pakistanis work on her estates in Pakistan.

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The contradictions may be due in part to Ms Bhutto's upbringing. She was born into a feudal elite - the eldest child of Pakistan's former prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, founder of the Pakistan People's Party, which she now leads - that admired the West.

The bile directed towards Pakistan's government is rooted in Mr Sharif's pursuit of Ms Bhutto and her husband, Mr Asif Ali Zardari, on corruption charges. In May, the Pakistani Supreme Court challenged Ms Bhutto to return from exile or sacrifice her political future to attend an appeal against conviction for taking bribes from a Swiss cargo inspection company.

Pakistan's Senator Saif-urReh man, who until this week headed the anti-corruption unit in Mr Sharif's office, had also been investigating Swiss and Polish bank accounts held by Ms Bhutto and her husband which he claimed were stuffed with millions of pounds in diverted commission payments.

In exile, Ms Bhutto's long-term political future is uncertain. Certainly, Mr Sharif has succeeded in manoeuvring Ms Bhutto out of Pakistan's domestic political life and the general belief among Pakistanis is that Ms Bhutto and her husband are yet another example of corrupt politicians.

Since losing power for the second time in 1996, when Mr Sharif succeeded her as prime minister, there has been a small increase in Ms Bhutto's popularity. However, according to Dr Athar Hussain, deputy director of the Asia research department at the London School of Economics, this popularity is unlikely to translate into a swift return to power.

"She can't use the excuse that she didn't know about the corruption," says Dr Hussain. "Pakistani's have a great deal of cynicism for all politicians and she left office as a discredited politician. Although Mr Sharif lost popularity very quickly, it doesn't seem to have been translated into a big increase in popularity for Bhutto."

If elections were held in the near future, Dr Hussain believes Ms Bhutto could benefit but would be unlikely to win enough votes to form a majority government and could therefore be forced into coalition with smaller, regional parties. However, with the present military government likely to remain in power for two years, it is unlikely to welcome Ms Bhutto back with open arms when she and her husband are still facing charges of corruption, Dr Hussain argues.

One of the main obstacles to restoring democracy in Pakistan, he says, is the absence of any other political candidate to rival Ms Bhutto or Mr Sharif: "He is very vulnerable on corruption and so is she." While these events may provide some opportunities for her, "it looks like she is probably finished politically. I think there will eventually be a break-up of national groupings in Pakistan."