The Minister for Finance will no sooner have delivered his Budget statement to the Dail on Wednesday than he travels to Nice on Thursday for the EU super summit which ends the French presidency. The two occasions are of vital importance for Charlie McCreevy and for the country. If he doesn't get the Budget right, his days in Government may be numbered, as will Fianna Fail's; if he, Bertie Ahern and Brian Cowen don't get the summit right, Ireland's days of plenty could soon be past tense. Before Nice, though, McCreevy must promote his Budget to avoid a repeat of last year's disastrous reaction. He will address the faithful first, at the Fianna Fail breakfast on Thursday morning, and then the sceptical on Today with Pat Kenny immediately afterwards.
In Nice, where the Council of Ministers and the IGC come together to lay the plan for the enlargement of the EU from 15 countries to 28, Ireland has three targets in a very tough battle - to retain our Commissioner, to retain the veto on new admissions and treaty amendments, and to retain control of our own taxes.
A Commissioner is vital to a small nation, as it is the Commissioners who propose and implement policy. To counter the argument that 28 commissioners - which means the big nations losing one of their two - is still too unwieldy, we will offer concessions on the weighting of votes in the parliament and council, and increased powers for the President of Commission, currently Romano Prodi.
On tax, the Commission is pushing for EU control of VAT, excise duties and fraud; and some want harmonisation of company taxation to ensure equality of competition. We will oppose all such measures vigorously and we won't be alone. The British, of course, want nothing at all to do with it; and the Scandinavians want no interference for different reasons - tax pays for their costly welfare and health services. There will be decisions next weekend, because the macho French are determined not to fail: they particularly want a place in history for the Treaty of Nice, because positive signals must go out to candidate countries, and because a fudge is always bad. A political declaration on fundamental rights is also expected. Our three delegates have their work cut out.