Relative to 1994, there are a number of interesting characteristics of this election which will influence the situation. The first is that there are considerably fewer candidates than five years ago, one effect of which will be that most well-known candidates will poll better than on the last occasion. For instance, last time only one candidate, Brian Crowley in Munster, exceeded the quota on the first count.
Today's indications are that a possible five to six will be in that position.
With the local elections also taking place, the 1994 turnout of approximately 44 per cent will also very likely be exceeded; this, however, is most unlikely to be near the low 60s of the more recent general elections.
With eight campaigning days remaining when the survey was conducted, on Wednesday and Thursday last, the broad indications are that while Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will at least hold their current complement of seats, there is likely to be a stirring battle for the fourth seats in Dublin, Leinster and Munster - in the latter instance among two candidates of the same party. Dublin (4 Seats - Quota 20 per cent)
In the 1994 election, Niall Andrews was the first elected - on the 10th count - having earlier received the bulk of John Stafford's transfers. He was followed by Patricia McKenna, who had topped the poll with 15 per cent of the first-preference votes and was elected on the 11th count.
Both Mary Banotti, who polled very well in second place on the first count, and Bernie Malone, with heavy transfers from Orla Guerin and Pat Rabbitte, were then elected without reaching the quota. All four were again nominated in the current election, and are joined by a further nine candidates. There were runners in 1994.
On this occasion, Niall Andrews will again be the first to be elected, but of much greater significance now is that he is very likely to exceed the quota, to top the poll, and be elected on the first count. Mary Banotti is also performing considerably better than in 1994. She is sitting on more than a quota and will be elected comfortably. Proinsias De Rossa has 12 per cent of first preferences and should take the third seat. The fourth seat will be hard fought and will be between Patricia McKenna (who will pick up transfers from Banotti, De Rossa and Higgins), Ben Briscoe (who will get the bulk of Andrews's transfers), Jim Mitchell (who needs more of Banotti's transfers than he appears to be receiving) and possibly Bernie Malone (who will benefit when De Rossa is elected).
The destination of the fourth seat will be very much influenced by the surpluses of Andrews and Banotti, and the positioning of the four final-seat protagonists at that stage. It would appear to be between McKenna and Briscoe.
Leinster (4 Seats - Quota 20 per cent)
In the last election, Liam Hyland topped the poll with 18 per cent of first preferences and was the only candidate to eventually reach the quota. He was elected on the 7th count, primarily on transfers from Seamus Pattison and Michael Bell. Alan Gillis (16 per cent first preference), Jim Fitzsimons (16 per cent) and Nuala Ahern (12 per cent) were then elected, all without reaching the quota.
All four are running again and are joined by a further four, Avril Doyle, Sean Butler, Desmond Garret and Arthur Morgan. Twelve contested the 1994 election. Liam Hyland will again top the poll, and on the survey figures will be elected on the first count. He is followed again by a Fine Gael candidate, except that on this occasion Avril Doyle is the Fine Gael front-runner. She could make it on the first count.
If Ms Doyle does not exceed the quota on the first count, Jim Fitzsimons, on 19 per cent, could be the second candidate elected on Liam Hyland's surplus. The final seat will be between Nuala Ahern, the outgoing Green candidate, and Alan Gillis, outgoing for Fine Gael, locked together on 13 per cent each.
While two-thirds of Liam Hyland's transfers are going to his Fianna Fail colleague, the indications are that Alan Gillis will fare slightly better than Nuala Ahern at that stage. He is also benefiting to a greater extent from Jim Fitzsimons and will also pick up the bulk of Avril Doyle's transfers.
There is nothing between the two when the votes of those to be eliminated are inspected. However, the fact that Nuala Ahern received a massive transfer of 6,500 votes from Michael Bell on his elimination in 1994 should not be ignored, and traditionally the Green Party candidates have tended to attract transfers to a crucial extent. On balance, the survey figures on transfers favour Alan Gillis. Precedent, however, points to Nuala Ahern.
Munster (4 Seats - Quota 20 per cent)
In 1994 Brian Crowley had the distinction of being the only candidate over the four constituencies who was elected on the first count; he topped the poll in Munster with 23 per cent of first preferences. Gerard Collins (14 per cent first preference) was elected on the 10th count, primarily as a result of Paddy Lane's transfers.
Both John Cushnahan (10 per cent first preference) and Pat Cox (8 per cent) were next elected, each without reaching the quota; the former was less than 900 votes short.
Brian Crowley's performance was particularly notable as the Munster constituency was numerically the most competitive, with 16 candidates. Ten are contesting this year's election.
Brian Crowley will again top the poll and, with considerably fewer candidates in contention, will be elected on the first count with a much greater surplus than last time. However, it would appear that Gerard Collins will not need any of these, as he is also on target to exceed the quota on the first count and be elected.
Pat Cox has 75 per cent of a quota, almost double his firstcount impact in the last election and will benefit from the Fianna Fail surplus to a much greater extent than either John Cushnahan or Jim Corr. He will take the third seat, and the fourth will be an internal battle between the two Fine Gael candidates, each of whom is on 8 per cent, i.e. a cumulative total of 75 per cent of a quota.
In assessing the situation, the fact that each is transferring substantially to the other can be ignored, and of crucial significance is the extent to which the surplus of the three elected candidates is likely to go to either.
In this context, Fianna Fail is transferring to each in almost equal terms, but not in sufficient volume to elect either. It is very likely therefore to depend on the transfers of Pat Cox, and the eliminated candidates, and the figures show that John Cushnahan will benefit to a slightly better extent than Jim Corr in this regard.
Connacht/Ulster (3 Seats - Quota 25 per cent)
In the last election, Pat "The Cope" Gallagher received the second-highest first-preference vote in the State with 23 per cent and was elected on the fourth count. Mark Killilea (20 per cent first preference) followed on the next count, and Joe McCartin (16 per cent) was then elected without reaching the quota.
This year's contest has 11 candidates, two more than last time, and includes Noel Treacy, replacing the retired Mark Killilea, and two high-profile independent women candidates, Dana Rosemary Scallon and Marian Harkin.
Pat "The Cope" Gallagher will again top the poll and is positioned very close to the Connacht/Ulster quota of 25 per cent. He will be followed closely by Noel Treacy, who may not reach the quota on the first count, but will benefit adequately from the resultant transfers. Joe McCartin (21 per cent) is polling much better than his 16 per cent in the last election, and will be very close to the quota following Gallagher's transfers.
While there will be no change therefore from 1994, both Marian Harkin and Dana Rosemary Scallon will poll well, and on the survey figures have almost a quota between them.
General
To summarise, both Fianna fail and Fine Gael will be happy with the outcome. Each will at least hold its current complement of seven and four seats respectively. Both parties are also fighting for the fourth seat in Dublin with Patricia McKenna of the Green Party, and in Leinster Alan Gillis is contesting the fourth seat with Nuala Ahern (Green). Labour will win one seat with Proinsias De Rossa, and Pat Cox will again be returned as an Independent.
After a relatively quiet three weeks since the last opinion poll was published on May 13th, Government satisfaction ratings have risen by seven points following its low of 51 per cent last month, and Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach is the only party leader to have improved his position since then. Support for Fianna Fail has also increased to 51 per cent, the party's highest this year, while that for Fine Gael remains firm.
Since the questions on satisfaction ratings and party support were administered against the background of the European election, the current downturn in the ratings for the leaders of the Labour and PD parties and for their parties per se can be attributed to the relatively low profile of the two parties in the present European election.
This survey in the Republic of Ireland was conducted exclusively on behalf of The Irish Times by MRBI Ltd among a national quota sample of 1,600 representatives of the 2.5 million electors aged 18 and upwards, covering 160 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the Republic of Ireland. Personal in-home interviewing took place on Wednesday & Thursday, June 2nd and 3rd, 1999, and the accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 2.5 per cent. In all respects, the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by the Marketing Society of Ireland and by ESOMAR (European Society).
Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgment is given to The Irish Times and MRBI Ltd.