Overview: Voters look set to rebuke Fianna Fail for the broken promises of 2002, writes Mark Brennock.
Fianna Fáil is bracing itself for a sharp mid-term rebuke from voters. Fine Gael is preparing for significant seat losses. The PDs expect to hold their own. Labour, the Green Party and Sinn Féin believe they can take advantage of the major parties' problems and hope to build successful local candidates into Dáil prospects in just over two years' time.
Success and failure are relative, and the perception of how each party and the Independents perform in these elections depends on what you measure their June 11th performance against.
For Fianna Fáil, a significantly better performance than the poor showing in a string of recent polls will be satisfactory. For Fine Gael, getting a number of potential Dáil candidates elected to local authorities, particularly in Dublin, would offset significant seat losses that are expected across the State.
Labour, the Greens and Sinn Féin will be concerned to increase their national share of the vote compared to 1999. But in their case the important thing is to get Dáil candidates in position. And for Independents there is only one measure of success: Whether or not you get elected.
The citizenship referendum on June 11th shows no signs yet of impinging greatly in the campaign. A significant "No" vote would be a further sign of anti-Government feeling.
The European Parliament election results will say less about the state of the parties than will the local elections. For example Fine Gael's strong candidate team (Gay Mitchell in Dublin, Avril Doyle and Maireád McGuinness in East, Simon Coveney in South and Jim Higgins and Madeleine Taylor Quinn in North-West) is likely to gain a greater party vote than the local election candidates. Similarly Labour's Proinsias de Rossa and Ivana Bacik in Dublin are almost certain to do better in the capital than their party does in the local elections.
The European elections are likely to produce surprises from among the Independents and smaller parties too - remember Dana in 1999. Just as few people expected her to win in 1999, few are now talking of Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party in Dublin or Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin in North-West. Both are likely to do better than expected.
Personality-based performances in the European Parliament elections may therefore distract from poor outcomes in the local elections. But it is on the local government results that the parties will measure their standing in advance of the next general election.
Fianna Fáil appears certain to lose local authority seats. The party's 38.9 per cent of the vote in 1999 secured it 42.9 per cent of the county and city council seats in the State, due to effective vote management. However the most recent Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll last February showed the party at just 33 per cent. That in turn was an improvement on the position that it held for the previous year.
Barring an unforeseen surge in party support - which appears most unlikely - Fianna Fáil has no hope of retaining the 382 seats it won then out of the total of 890 on county and city councils (this does not include borough councils, town commissions and other local authorities). The broken promises from 2002 have not been forgotten, and the Hanly report, dumps, housing, transport chaos and recent debacles such as that on e-voting may all combine to bring out a strong anti-Government vote.
Fianna Fáil's objective is to minimise losses - which mathematics suggest could run to some 50 seats if the 33 per cent opinion poll figure is replicated on June 11th.
In the European campaign the decision of Pat Cox not to run again in South gives the party some hope of retaining its two seats (Brian Crowley and Gerard Crowley) in the reduced three-seat constituency. However, in the reduced three-seater of East it is almost certain to lose a seat. While there appears to be no prospect of the party winning any more than the one seat it secured in each of Dublin and North-West last time, much interest is focused on the internal Fianna Fáil battles in Dublin (between Eoin Ryan and Royston Brady) and North-West (between Jim McDaid and Seán Ó Neachtain).
Fine Gael's most recent poll showing of 21 per cent has alarming implications for its prospects in the local government elections. In 1999 the party won 28.1 per cent of the vote and 277 seats or 31.1 per cent of the national total. Back then it did particularly well in Dublin, whereas in the 2002 general election the capital city was the party's biggest disaster area, yielding it just three Dáil seats out of 47. Recent polls show no signs of recovery in Dublin.
Enda Kenny has wasted no opportunity to point out that he took over the party when it was at 22 per cent, not 28 per cent. The implication is that should the party lose dozens of seats next month, the rot set in before he was leader and so he can't be blamed. Fine Gael's aim is to minimise losses too, but Dublin is the priority. The election of a few councillors who would make strong general election candidates is a must. Without seat gains in the capital in the next General Election, the party will be confirmed as a declining force.
The European elections could present Fine Gael with a morale boost, with the prospect that its strong candidates could secure up to five seats between them. On a bad day they could end up with just two.
Labour's 1999 local election performance was very disappointing for it. Some 10.8 per cent of the vote won it 83 seats or 9.3 per cent of the total. The party performance throughout the State was patchy. Its most recent poll showing of 17 per cent suggests potential for significant gains. Breaking the 100-seat barrier would represent a solid advance. However, its potential for gains in Dublin is limited by the fact that it won a seat in almost every electoral ward in the city last time.
In the European Parliament elections, Labour has not won a seat outside Dublin for a quarter of a century. Labour is expected to win one seat in Dublin. Some of their giddier campaigners don't rule out the prospect that Bacik's first preference vote will come close to that of de Rossa and that the prospect of two seats can't be ruled out.
In East they hold out hope that Peter Cassells can win. However, the constituency has just been reduced from four to three seats. It seems unlikely that he would take a seat, although the party calculates that Mary White is not as strong a Green Party candidate as retiring MEP Nuala Ahern, and that therefore it has a chance.
In Munster Brendan Ryan may poll well but in a three-seater, not well enough. In North-West Hugh Baxter of Longford is out to raise his profile before the next General Election rather than challenge seriously for a seat.
The Green Party had a disappointing local election and a very good European Parliament result last time. Trevor Sargent has said he wants to treble the party's local government representation from the eight seats it won last time.
In the European elections it faces the prospect of a serious reverse. Outgoing Leinster MEP Nuala Ahern is not running again. Her Carlow-based replacement, Mary White, is running an energetic campaign but may not have the broad appeal of Louth born Wicklow resident Ahern. And in Dublin, high-profile MEP Patricia McKenna faces a strong challenge from Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald and Labour's Ivana Bacik. There are sections of the electorate who will vote for a woman, a youngish person and an anti-establishment candidate. Ms McKenna has done well with these voters in the last two elections, but has strong competition this time.
The Progressive Democrats have no European Parliament candidate. Never aspiring to be a mass party, they are leaving many wards and areas uncontested, concentrating on getting candidates elected in specific areas. They currently have no member of Dublin City Council, for example, and are attempting to rectify that. They hope the anti-Government backlash is visited entirely on Fianna Fáil.
Sinn Féin's director of elections, Pat Doherty, says his party hopes to double its local authority representation from the 21 seats it won on city and county councils last time. He says there are two factors clearly identifiable from canvassing already which will work in its favour: Evidence that the steady rise in Sinn Féin support is continuing, and signs of "a huge anti-Fianna Fáil vote that may go all over the place, although some of it will stay at home".
Three of the four new Sinn Féin deputies elected to the Dáil in 2002 were elected to local authorities for the first time in 1999. Getting local politicians in place is hugely important for small parties such as Sinn Féin as they attempt to build their Dáil representation. The party received just 3.5 per cent nationally in 1999: It showed at 12 per cent in last February's Irish Times poll.
It is set to do extremely well, although it remains to be seen whether the renewed publicity over the killing of Det Garda Jerry McCabe will put any brake on Sinn Féin's growth.
It is likely to be Sinn Féin's election. It may be a good day for the Green Party, and possibly for Labour. Independents will cause surprises in various parts of the State - and possibly in the European parliament elections too.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael seem set to spend June 12th looking for positive signs from results that will bring significant losses.
Tomorrow: Dan Keenan's overview of Northern Ireland's European elections