BRITAIN: The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, is still facing the possibility of a double blow to his political credibility next week in which defeat over university fees coupled with the Hutton Report could diminish his authority seriously, writes Frank Milllar in London
His office, 10 Downing Street, suggested yesterday that Mr Blair still had "a hill to climb" to overcome a Labour backbench rebellion threatening to defeat the government's "flagship" proposal to allow universities to charge students variable fees of up to £3,000 (€4,300) per year.
And government whips will use the weekend to impress on potential rebels the real risk that defeat on Tuesday could combine with even limited criticism when Lord Hutton reports on Wednesday to seriously undermine Mr Blair's position.
The knowledge that leading rebels like former minister Ms Clare Short intend precisely such an outcome will fuel last-minute appeals to Labour MPs not to hand a famous victory to Conservative leader Mr Michael Howard, whose seemingly resurgent Conservative Party has claimed 40 per cent support in an opinion poll for the first time in almost 12 years.
Against MORI and ICM polls earlier this week giving Labour an advantage of two and five points respectively, the YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph put the Tories ahead by 5 per cent, suggesting the party might have finally broken "the electoral jinx" that has dogged it since Britain's ejection from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992. In the popularity stakes over who would "make the best prime minister" Mr Howard cut Mr Blair's lead to just two points, while distrust of the Blair government went up marginally, with 66 per cent saying the government has not, on balance, been honest and trustworthy.
Even if there are doubts about YouGov's reliability, yesterday's findings will have increased nervousness among ministers ahead of yet another "make-or-break" week for Mr Blair's premiership.
Mr Blair will receive his advance copy of Lord Hutton's report on the circumstances surrounding the death of former government scientist Dr David Kelly at midday on Tuesday, during the final build-up to that day's 7o'clock vote on university fees.
In the hours following victory or defeat he will then have to prepare for Wednesday's usual Prime Minister's Questions before his statement to MPs in response to Lord Hutton's report.
Government insiders appear confident Lord Hutton will clear Mr Blair over the controversy with the BBC over claims that Downing Street "sexed up" the Iraqi weapons dossier against the wishes of the intelligence services - and over the alleged leaking of Dr Kelly's name as the suspected source for the BBC's allegations.
However, the Ministry of Defence is bracing itself for potentially serious criticism over its failure to meet a "duty of care" to Dr Kelly. And there was further bad news yesterday for the most likely cabinet casualty of the Kelly affair, Defence Secretary Mr Geoff Hoon, as a National Audit Office study confirmed a £3 billion overspend on the defence budget. Mr Hoon has already signalled his expectation that he may not survive Lord Hutton's report.