Blair fights rearguard action to prevent new crisis

EU: When EU leaders gather this evening to try to hammer out a deal on the bloc's 2007-2013 budget, all smiles for the photographers…

EU: When EU leaders gather this evening to try to hammer out a deal on the bloc's 2007-2013 budget, all smiles for the photographers will do little to clear the tense atmosphere that grips Brussels.

For almost a month politicians have traded insults over the new EU budget, with most of the criticism directed at the current EU president, Britain, first for delaying publication of a proposal and then for offering too little to new member states.

British prime minister Tony Blair, who at the start of his presidency promised so much in a speech at the European Parliament, is now fighting a rearguard action to cobble together a deal to prevent the EU from slipping into a new crisis.

Even though in the past few EU budgets have been agreed a full year before they enter into force, the votes against the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands have raised the political stakes for a perceptibly weaker EU.

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European president José Manuel Barroso has on several occasions underlined the vital importance of getting a deal and has warned of paralysis if none is found. The 10 new member states are also anxious to begin planning for how they will spend their EU structural funds, a process that will take at least 12 months.

Three critical issues will determine if an unanimous agreement can be found by member states: the British rebate, a review of the Common Agricultural Policy (Cap) and funds for new member states.

Britain's rebate from the EU exchequer originally compensated it for not receiving large amounts of Cap funding due to its small agriculture sector. However, with EU expansion it is now set to increase hugely, unless adjusted or abolished entirely.

In his first budget proposal, Mr Blair conceded that he would pay an extra €8 billion into the EU's coffers, potentially by lowering the rebate between 2007-2013, but he has refused to agree a permanent change without changes to the Cap. This pits him against most other member states, which are seeking a permanent change to the British rebate.

It also reopens the possibility for another acrimonious clash with French president Jacques Chirac, whose difficult relationship with Mr Blair was a factor in the failure of budget talks in June.

"This relationship is one of the big unknowns," admitted one diplomat last night, who nevertheless said a deal was more likely than not.

Mr Blair's room for manoeuvre on the rebate is limited by domestic pressures, as underlined by the Sun's headline "All talk Tony" yesterday, which predicted that his policy to negotiate on the rebate would forever be known as the "Great British Giveaway".

Yet most observers agree that this summit is the best chance of getting concessions from Britain, which carries added responsibility as EU president.

A €12.3 billion reduction in structural funds designated for the 10 new member states, when compared to the previous budget proposal in June made by the Luxembourg presidency, will also be fought over at the summit.

Poland, which stands to lose the most under the proposal, reiterated yesterday that it would veto the current proposal.

Over the next 48 hours it is likely that a new compromise proposal tabled by the British will sweeten their position somewhat.

For Ireland, defence of the Cap will remain its prime concern. Irish officials will also be pleased by the new proposal yesterday, which allocated an extra €250 million in rural development funding.

Several other important issues will be discussed at the European Council that could be dragged into the debate over the budget.

The first is the commission's decision to recommend that the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia be granted candidate status by member states. This status is a step on the way to beginning negotiations on EU membership and is a crucial way to promote stability in the volatile Balkan region.

The commission decision was supported by foreign ministers from all member states except France at a meeting this week, which said that the EU first had to show it could finance its existing enlargement.

Another issue on the agenda that could potentially become linked to the budget is VAT discounts on a range of services from hairdressing to home repairs in the EU.

The discounts, which apply in several states, are due to expire on January 1st, leaving countries such as Britain and France in breach of EU law.

France desperately wants to extend the list to include restaurants in line with a promise made during the 2002 presidential election by Jacques Chirac, but Britain and Germany want to limit the list of services that can avail of discounts.

It could be a bargaining chip.

Other agenda items are a new Africa strategy, migration and the future of Europe.

However if tomorrow evening arrives with no deal on the financial perspectives, the EU will face another debilitating crisis of confidence as it enters 2006.