Blair may face referendum defeat - poll

BRITAIN: British prime minister, Mr Tony Blair, controversially claimed leadership in the "new Europe" yesterday on the eve …

BRITAIN: British prime minister, Mr Tony Blair, controversially claimed leadership in the "new Europe" yesterday on the eve of the accession of the 10 new member-states.

Hailing the achievement of one of Britain's long-standing policy goals, Mr Blair said enlargement would "give a new push" to Britain's reform agenda in Europe and strengthen America's partnership with the European Union.

But against the backdrop of continued speculation about his leadership, a new opinion poll yesterday reinforced the belief that Mr Blair is facing defeat in the promised British referendum on the proposed European constitution. At the same time the simmering discontent of Labour Europhiles over Mr Blair's referendum U-turn was again on display as former Labour leader, now European Commissioner, Mr Neil Kinnock, warned that any second referendum following a No vote would be "a sour shambles".

And there was more potential embarrassment for Mr Blair as he prepared to fly in for today's celebrations in Dublin as new rules came into force to deny non-working migrants from the accession countries access to housing and other benefits in Britain.

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Work and Pensions Secretary, Mr Andrew Smith, said the new Social Security (Habitual Residence) Regulations would prevent abuse of the benefits system as the British economy was opened to those wanting to work.

But the resulting loss of Home Office support for up to 2,500 asylum-seekers from the 10 accession states already in Britain - some of them for between three and four years - prompted refugee agencies to warn of resulting chaos for councils, destitution and homelessness, and a potential race relations backlash.

Until now those seeking asylum have been banned from seeking work and supporting themselves. Under the new rules, however, they and their dependents are no longer eligible for support, and the official assumption is that it is safe for them to return to their countries of origin.

In letters sent out in early April, the Home Office advised asylum-seekers from the accession states they should vacate their homes by May 1st. However Kent County Council, which houses more than 200 of those affected, had proposed transitional arrangements be made while the High Court on Thursday urged a guarantee of temporary support in order to prevent a deluge of legal challenges.

The Home Office said yesterday no one would be required to vacate their homes without opportunity to make further representations, while insisting it had given enough notice that its grant to local authorities would be withdrawn. However asylum groups said the promised hearing of late claims would not prevent evictions and insisted the Home Office must give those affected more time to put their affairs in order.

In his article in the London Times yesterday, Mr Blair said the accession of the new members would be good for them, "good for Europe as a whole and, above all, good for Britain". He continued: "Britain's trade with the eight largest new members has already doubled within the past decade. I believe too the accession will be a catalyst for change within the EU, helping to give a new push to Britain's agenda and fresh impetus to priorities which are already in the ascendancy in Europe."