Blair may resort to 'Plan B' if talks fail

The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, has prompted fresh speculation about a possible "Plan B" for Northern Ireland after…

The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, has prompted fresh speculation about a possible "Plan B" for Northern Ireland after again insisting "an alternative way forward" would have to be found if next week's Leeds Castle talks fail.

One senior DUP source last night suggested this could take the form of the proposed "two-stage process" that was first reported in The Irish Times earlier this year.

This would involve initial bilateral moves by the British government and republicans, with the DUP awaiting adjudication on IRA "acts of completion" in subsequent reports by the Independent Monitoring Commission and the International Decommissioning Commission headed by Gen John de Chastelain before agreeing to enter into government with Sinn Féin.

However, the source confirmed that, "in the best-case scenario", this would mean no return to power sharing government before late March 2005.

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This might appear compatible with Sinn Féin's insistence that any agreement will require action by the British government, in particular, to complete "unfinished business" arising from the Belfast Agreement, as well as the British-Irish Joint Declaration and the failed negotiation between Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionists in October 2003.

However, a Sinn Féin spokesman firmly ruled out "any period of decontamination" prior to Sinn Féin ministers resuming office, quoting party president Mr Gerry Adams' warning at Westminster on Monday that the two governments must adhere to the provisions of the Belfast Agreement in respect of eligibility for ministerial office and its arrangements for dealing with the issue of paramilitary arms.

Senior Ulster Unionists, meanwhile, suggested a "two-stage process" would come unstuck over the question of devolving policing and justice powers to the Assembly, and that Sinn Féin would be unlikely to accept DUP or other unionist proposals to allow the Assembly to function in any form other than that provided in the Belfast Agreement.

Yesterday Mr Blair insisted he believed a deal was possible to permit the restoration of the Stormont Assembly and Executive.

However, while it was not yet "sensible to discuss Plan B", Mr Blair warned: "If we don't get it at Leeds Castle . . . we're going to have to find an alternative way because we can't have this endless negotiation."

Mr Blair did not go beyond his comments at the end of the discussions held at Lancaster House in early July, when he said the September talks must mark "the point of decision" about the future direction of the political process in Northern Ireland.

His renewed impatience with the continuing political stalemate has injected fresh urgency into continuing behind-the-scenes preparations for the Leeds Castle negotiation. It also suggests tensions between Downing Street and some officials in the Northern Ireland Office who calculate that substantial political progress may have to await the outcome of the next British general election and/or a change in the DUP leadership.