Blair's private pollster predicts another landslide

They think it's all over. Tony Blair's private pollster has told him he is on course for another landslide win

They think it's all over. Tony Blair's private pollster has told him he is on course for another landslide win. While William Hague fumed about Lionel Jospin's version of Euro-federalism, the Prime Minister's spokesman released the figures showing Labour up two points since the election campaign began - at 46 per cent a clear 20 points ahead of the Tories.

Simply translated, this spelt an even bigger defeat for Mr Hague than the voters inflicted on the hapless John Major four years ago - and a Labour majority of 241 in the new Commons.

Hardened journalists naturally assumed Labour's purpose was to divert press attention from what Mr Hague cheerfully regarded as Mr Jospin's "embarrassing" disclosure of Labour's true European agenda.

Mr Blair, however, appeared to give the lie to this yesterday. Before the campaign began conventional Westminster wisdom was that Labour would seek to neutralise Europe as an election issue.

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The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Gordon Brown, manifestly doesn't want to spend time talking about it. And few other ministers think Labour has many votes to win on the one issue (asylum apart) with which Mr Hague seems to find a resonance with the British electorate.

Mr Blair now seems to take a contrary view. Emboldened by last Friday's defence of pro-European patriotism, the prime minister rejoined the European debate yesterday, again arguing for greater British self-confidence in the conduct of their dealings with the EU.

Now for once it seems reasonable to take the spin-meisters at face value. Not only do Mr Blair's closest advisers believe it's in the bag. Their disclosure of their private polling suggests they are now confident they have beaten the Conservatives, and the "Apathy Party" as well.

Evidently moving in for the kill, their aim presumably is to trigger meltdown in the Tory ranks in the final days to June 7th. First, they signal their intention to make "leadership" an issue - comparing and contrasting Mr Blair with Mr Hague. Then they release figures telling the already shrunken band of sitting Tory MPs some of their elite members are on the death list. Elementary really.

But, for the moment at least, the Tories are refusing to play. True, there are dark hints that eminences like Chris Patten are planning to break ranks within hours of Mr Blair's expected landslide - pushing for early British membership of the euro just, presumably, as Michael Portillo, Ann Widdecombe and Iain Duncan Smith consider their leadership prospects.

Sir Edward Heath has characteristically declared his party in need of another defeat. And Lord (Geoffrey) Howe yesterday warned Mr Hague that "Save the Pound" could ultimately do for the Tories what "Ban the Bomb" did for Michael Foot's Labour Party.

Yet the Tory line appears to be holding among those actually campaigning for re-election. The Conservative leader says he simply doesn't believe the polls and remains convinced millions of people "out there" have still to make up their minds. He regards Mr Blair's insistence that the election is about the economy, health and education as a clear attempt to force him off his euro campaign.

Mr Brown rubbishes Tory claims that conversion to the euro could cost £36 billion - or a Dome a month, as Mr Portillo put it - yet refuses to provide his own estimate. Commentators know that the terms of the question put in any referendum could be crucial to its outcome. And who can doubt that a Commons totally overwhelmed by Labour could make-the-referendum-weather in a way Mr Blair, probably correctly, judged impossible first time around?

Whatever his failings, or, indeed, his personal future, Mr Hague is undoubtedly correct to insist this election is of critical importance for the UK. It will set the course for the future of the British state.