BRITAIN: Mr Tony Blair yesterday assured the Labour Party and the British public that he did not want war as he offered Iraq "one further final chance to disarm voluntarily". On the eve of a House of Commons vote which is set to reveal the true scale of Labour's threatened anti-war rebellion, the Prime Minister pledged to try diplomacy one last time in an effort to avoid "a dangerous moment for our world".
However, Mr Blair warned MPs that this would be the result should the international community tolerate continuing Iraqi non-compliance with UN resolutions. "At stake in Iraq is not just war and peace. It is the authority of the United Nations. Resolution 1441 is clear. All we are asking is that it now be upheld. If it is not, the consequences will stretch far beyond Iraq. If the UN cannot be the way of resolving this issue, that is a dangerous moment for our world."
The Commons was packed for Mr Blair's statement ahead of today's debate, when rebel Labour MPs will seek to force a division on an amendment to the government motion, arguing that the case for war has not yet been made.
There was inevitable discomfort for Labour dissidents as Mr Blair won warm support for his tough stand from the Conservative leader, Mr Iain Duncan Smith, and from his predecessor, Mr William Hague. However, while Mr Blair again faced heavy questioning from senior Labour backbenchers, the overall Labour mood seemed less fractious than in previous weeks. And while the leaders of the anti-war faction predict that as many as 150 MPs could oppose Mr Blair in tonight's division, ministers remain hopeful that the rebellion will not run into three figures.
Even as Mr Blair sought to contain his domestic rebellion and continued his hectic diplomatic push for support for the new US/UK Security Council resolution, there was a fresh reminder of the wider political risks inherent in his alliance with President Bush as the nationalist parties predicted that war on Iraq could lose Scotland and Wales for Labour in the devolved elections in May.
The Scottish National Party leader, Mr John Swinney, said that the polls would provide the first opportunity for voters to choose between the pro-war and anti-war parties. "The Iraq crisis has come on top of the widespread dissatisfaction voters already feel and may well prove to be the final nail in the coffin of Labour's domination north of the border," he said.
Plaid Cymru's leader, Mr Ieuan Wyn Jones, likewise predicted that his party's outright opposition to war could pay dividends in the elections to the Welsh Assembly. He insisted: "There's been quite a shift in people's voting preferences because of the impact of the potential war in Iraq. My belief is that our principled stance means that lots of people will be supporting us who might not have supported us had the election been held in November."
Mr Blair, however, showed no fear either of today's vote or of potential electoral difficulties ahead as he told MPs: "This time Saddam must understand. Now is the time for him to decide. Passive rather than active co-operation will not do. Co-operation on process, not substance, will not do. Refusal to declare properly and fully what has happened to unaccounted-for weapons of mass destruction will not do. Resolution 1441 called for full, unconditional and immediate compliance. Anything less will not do."
Dismissing talk of a "rush to war", he countered: "We are now 12 years after Saddam was first told by the UN to disarm; nearly six months after President Bush made his speech to the UN accepting the UN route to disarmament; nearly four months on from Resolution 1441; and even today we are offering Saddam the prospect of voluntary disarmament through the UN."
Mr Blair continued: "I detest his \ regime. But even now he can save it by complying with the UN's demand." At the same time he demanded: "If he refuses to co-operate - as he is refusing now - and we fail to act, what then? Saddam in charge of Iraq, his weapons of mass destruction intact, the will of the international community set at nothing, the UN tricked again, Saddam hugely strengthened and emboldened - does anyone truly believe that would mean peace? And when we turn to deal with other threats, where will our authority be? And when we make a demand next time, what will our credibility be? This is not a road to peace, but folly and weakness that will only mean the conflict, when it comes, is more bloody, less certain and greater in its devastation."
Refusing to commit himself on a timetable for seeking a vote on the UK/US resolution, Mr Blair dismissed the French/German/Russian alternative, insisting: "The issue is not time. It is will."
The full text of Mr Blair's speech may be read on the Irish Times website at www.ireland.com