Britain's Labour Party has suffered moderate losses in local council elections.
With results from most of the English councils in, a BBC projection gave the Conservatives 34 per cent of the vote, Labour 30. That may look bad for Mr Blair, but history shows governments traditionally fare badly in local polls.
Mr Blair's hawkish stance on Iraq did have had an impact in places - the issue was a major factor in the multi-ethnic city of Birmingham, where Labour lost heavily.
But despite unease over the military action, Mr Blair has enjoyed revival in national opinion polls since US and British forces quickly overthrew Saddam Hussein's reign.
Mr Blair's Conservative opponents needed sweeping gains to show signs of recovery after two successive general election drubbings.
But a year and a half since taking over his party, Tory leader Mr Duncan Smith has failed to seriously dent Mr Blair's sky-high ratings.
As the polls closed, he suffered a blow as his industry spokesman resigned, declaring him unelectable.
"Whatever the headline results in today's local elections the fact is the Conservative Party is making no real progress," Mr Crispin Blunt said. "He [Mr Duncan Smith] has failed to make the necessary impact on the electorate and I don't see any prospect of him doing so".
The far-right British National Party fielded record numbers of candidates and gained five seats in the northern England town of Burnley to become the second-largest party on that council.