Both sides take comfort from poll of attitudes to the Nice Treaty

Both sides in the Nice Treaty debate have found cause for comfort in the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll showing that, in…

Both sides in the Nice Treaty debate have found cause for comfort in the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll showing that, in a second referendum, 40 per cent would vote Yes and 29 per cent No, with 22 per cent undecided and 9 per cent abstaining.

Mr Alan Gillis of the European Movement said people were now beginning to appreciate the scale of the problems caused by the No vote and had a better understanding of the issues.

He cautioned that the Yes majority "represented just a chink of light" and more needed to be done.

"Sufficient information must be provided to all citizens in order that they may fully participate in any future referendum," Mr Gillis added. All politicians should take a leading role in the process.

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However, Mr Justin Barrett of the No to Nice Campaign said the Yes majority was so narrow it could easily be overturned. "Six months after the referendum, people are not focusing on the detail of the treaty, they are focusing on the general European project.

"In the event of a second referendum campaign, people would be focusing back on the detail of the treaty again and, in consequence, that referendum would be defeated.

"The single most striking thing is that [the poll] shows the Yes side would be starting that campaign in a poorer position than they started the last referendum campaign. I would take that as an indication that they would lose more heavily," Mr Barrett said.

Mr Proinsias De Rossa MEP, who directed the Labour campaign for a Yes vote last June, described the poll result as a good one.

"It shows signs of a rethink on the part of the electorate." he said. "The Forum on Europe is beginning to have an impact in terms of debating the issues, especially since it started going around the country, and that is reflected to some extent.

"People perhaps are more aware of the issues since the referendum. There are potentially more Yes than No votes, but there's a lot of work to be done."

Mr Roger Cole of the Peace and Neutrality Alliance (PANA), which campaigned against the treaty, said the poll clearly showed that any new referendum would be beaten.

Pointing to the high proportion of undecided voters, he said: "Last time most of the don't-knows voted No and would do the same again." However, he objected strongly to a second vote on the treaty, adding that PANA would oppose it unless there was a protocol excluding Ireland from any involvement with the European Rapid Reaction Force.

Mr Ciaran Toland of the Ireland for Europe group, which is campaigning in favour of Nice, welcomed the Yes majority: "We are confident that, with full and informed debate about the treaty, these levels of support will be increased," he said.

However, long-time observers of the European debate in Ireland said it was too early to be sure about the result of a second referendum. The key question was whether the Yes side could increase its vote on the day as the No vote was likely to remain high.