Boundaries may change but faces likely to stay the same

ALL politics is local and none more so than in Dublin South East

ALL politics is local and none more so than in Dublin South East. This four seater is made up of a number of communities, such as Ringsend, Irishtown, Sandymount and Ranelagh, which have strong identities and are as demanding of their TDs as any rural constituency.

The sitting TDs know this and it is expected that the same four will be returned. The only question is in what order.

In 1992 Ruairi Quinn topped the poll with 10,381 first preference votes which was well over the quota. This time the money is on Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fail taking the top slot, with Mr Quinn coming in second, followed by Frances Fitzgerald of Fine Gael and then Michael McDowell of the PDs.

Dublin South East is a strange constituency. It has within its boundaries some of the wealthiest areas of the State, including that almost mythical postal address, Dublin 4, as well as inner city areas plagued with problems of unemployment and drugs.

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It is also one of the youngest constituencies in demographic terms, with Trinity College, UCD and the Dublin Institute of Technology within its boundaries.

Traditionally Dublin South East has low turnouts and in 1992 it had the lowest turnout in the State.

In this election the boundaries have been redrawn adding a large middle class area from Ailesbury Road to Clonskeagh, including the UCD campus at Belfield.

At the same time much of the traditional Liberties area of Dublin has been removed.

For Mr Quinn the change means a loss of a big chunk of votes in an area where he has worked hard. When the south inner city was added to Dublin South East he changed his Dublin Corporation seat in order to add strength to his traditional base around Ringsend, Irishtown and Sandymount. He estimates the change has meant a loss of about 600 votes, a loss of 800 in the Liberties and a gain of 200 in the new area.

Mr Quinn might be Minister for Finance and only recently the president of Europe's Finance Ministers, but in the Iveagh Buildings he is the local TD who can and does get things done. He takes names about medical cards, local grievances and in one instance suggested a young man come to his clinic about a job the next week.

No one mentions tax. The issues are jobs and the small problems, people have just trying to survive.

In leafy Rathgar, Ms Fitzgerald canvasses Fine Gael votes among the middle classes. Crime is the issue here, as is stamp duty on house purchase. The economy is doing well, and many suggest there is no need for change.

Fianna Fail's Eoin Ryan took the seat last time from party colleague Gerard Brady. In this election he might understand how Mr Brady felt as he looks at the campaign being run by his running mate, Noel Whelan.

At 28 years of age, Whelan is the young person's candidate. He has been canvassing the constituency since the beginning of the year. There are 38,750 doors in Dublin South East, he tells you, with the air of a man who has knocked on every one.

He believes he has a mathematical chance of taking the last seat, which would, of course mean unseating Michael McDowell. However, clever vote management in 1992 only meant Fianna Fail switching personnel.

The other candidates believe it is unlikely that Mr McDowell will lose his seat and a good campaign by Mr Whelan will mean Mr Ryan will not top the poll.

Once upon a time there were two Fianna Fail seats, but recent boundary changes have reduced the working class sections of the constituency which would favour Fine Gael, and possible Mr McDowell, rather than Fianna Fail and Labour.

Some in the constituency feel that if Mr McDowell is in trouble his seat would be picked up by Joe Doyle, who won a seat for Fine Gael when Garret FitzGerald organised an amazing vote management campaign, but lost it when Ms Fitzgerald took the seat for Fine Gael.

There is a view that while John Gormley might be one of the Green's higher profile candidates as a former Lord Mayor of Dublin, he is likely to unseat any of the sitting TDs.