Battles within and between unionism and nationalism look set to dominate elections, with Alliance hopeful of increasing its seats, writes GERRY MORIARTY
IN 3½ WEEKS people in Northern Ireland will go to the polls to elect the fourth Assembly since the 1998 Belfast Agreement, reasonably confident that the next Stormont institution will be stronger than the previous three.
This battle is decidedly different than the three preceding campaigns, when the whole future of the powersharing institution and the new historic dispensation agreed on Good Friday 1998 were at risk. Northerners, if they wanted to be annoying – as they can be, occasionally – might say this place is much more settled than the South with all its economic woes.
The Orange/Green constitutional issues haven’t gone away, but apart from one hugely important matter of who will be first minister – Peter Robinson or Martin McGuinness – for the first time they are well down the agenda. The big issue is about what most normal elections are about: power. The other issues relate to a normalising society – bread and butter issues. This is a very good thing, long sought for.
First Minister Mr Robinson and Deputy First Minister Mr McGuinness have been extraordinarily cordial to each other over recent months but from now to voting day their bare knuckles should be more visible.
Voters will elect 108 Assembly members in 18 six-seater constituencies. There are 218 candidates, so almost half will win or hold seats; half won’t. They will also elect 582 councillors to the North’s 26 councils and, as is the case in Britain, will also vote in the referendum on whether to change the Westminster elections voting system from first past the post to the “alternative vote” or AV system – ie, where the first candidate to win 50 per cent of the vote through the proportional representation system gets elected.
The murder of PSNI constable Ronan Kerr briefly put the brakes on the campaign, as was correct and proper, but now the hard campaigning begins. The dissidents, and how there must be a strong and coherent policing and community response to address the threat they pose, will feature in the election.
There may be some differences in emphases between the nationalist and unionist parties on how they should be combated, but the central message will be universal and reflect what Cardinal Seán Brady said at Constable Kerr’s funeral: “Stop and stop now.”
The Assembly election will be about the DUP trying to further squeeze the Ulster Unionists, and it will be the exact same in relation to Sinn Féin and the SDLP. Alliance will hope to exploit a possibly changing zeitgeist and sharpen its place on the political rainbow between Orange and Green.
Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness will carefully underplay the issue of which will be the dominant party after May 5th, and thus entitled to the post of first minister.
The Assembly is a powersharing arrangement, of course, but which party has most seats is symbolically important and most unionists and nationalists are conscious of that fact. The biggest party also has first choice of the main Northern Executive department, the Department of Finance and Personnel.
Martin McGuinness has indicated that were he entitled to the post of first minister he would settle for posts of joint first ministers. That would be very generous but also very humiliating for unionism.
In the last Assembly election the DUP won 36 seats while Sinn Féin won 28 – the party’s representation dropped to 27 with the defection of Fermanagh MLA Gerry McHugh.
The worry for the DUP is that in 2007 they hit the high water mark and remember there is no Iris Robinson this time. Her charisma and energy won the party four seats in Strangford four years ago. But without Iris and taking boundary changes into account, the party will be hard pressed to hold four seats.
The DUP also took three seats last time in East Derry, East Belfast, North Antrim and Lagan Valley, and without careful vote management and strong campaigns could be vulnerable in one or two of these constituencies. Last time they sneaked two seats in West Tyrone and could be under pressure to hold them.
Sinn Féin is vulnerable in Lagan Valley but should take back Gerry McHugh’s seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone and has chances of gains in constituencies such as Upper Bann, North Belfast and East Antrim.
It would seem that all the planets and all the ducks would have to be in a row for Sinn Féin to eclipse the DUP as the main party in the North. But neither can it be ruled out; it’s an issue that will add spice to proceedings.
It’s also an issue that will unsettle the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP. Should this become the dominant – if subtly stated – campaign issue then the danger for the UUP and the SDLP is that a significant number of Ulster Unionists could switch to the DUP to safeguard the first minister position for Peter Robinson, while some SDLP people would shift to Sinn Féin to put Martin McGuinness in lead position.
The SDLP and UUP will argue against “sectarian head count” politics and trust their vote will not desert them.
Another important battle is also being fought here. In the outgoing Assembly the UUP had 18 seats to the SDLP’s 16, thus allowing the UUP have two ministries compared to the SDLP’s one.
The SDLP could lose the seat held by Declan O’Loan in North Antrim but has chances in West Tyrone, Strangford and East Antrim. It also favours its chances because the UUP, under leader Tom Elliott, has been under the cosh of late with internal party problems including a sacking, a resignation and almost everyone arguing with Minister of Health Michael McGimpsey.
Alliance holds seven seats, is confident of holding them and believes it can take additional seats in East Belfast and North Down, with chances also in constituencies such as East Antrim and East Derry.
Traditional Unionist Voice leader Jim Allister has a good chance in North Antrim. The Greens will be in the mix to hold its seat in unpredictable North Down, while there will be curiosity about how the electors of East Belfast, East Antrim and South Antrim respond to the British National Party candidates in these constituencies.
One current and three former party leaders are not running this time: the former DUP leader and first minister, the Rev Ian Paisley, now in the British House of Lords; Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams, who has given up both his West Belfast Assembly and Westminster seats to represent Louth in the Dáil; former SDLP leader Mark Durkan, who sits for the Foyle constituency in Westminster; and Reg Empey, former Ulster Unionist Party leader, who has been elevated to the House of Lords.