Are the DUP and Sinn Féin headed for a serious confrontation, asks Gerry Moriarty
IS IT the Boyne or Scarva? Such was the question posed by a senior DUP source yesterday (which he couldn't answer) about this standoff between Sinn Féin and the DUP over whether or not Gerry Adams will allow Peter Robinson to be elected First Minister tomorrow.
If it's the Boyne, as in the battle, then this could be a serious encounter between Sinn Féin and the DUP with the possible consequences of Assembly elections, and who knows what political crisis or crises thereafter.
If it's the equivalent of the Sham Fight at Scarva, when King Billy ceremonially defeats King James every July 13th in the Co Armagh village of Scarva, then this doesn't amount to anything much more than sabre-rattling and Sinn Féin laying down a marker that it mustn't be pushed around by the DUP.
Yet, by virtue of Mr Adams meeting Gordon Brown in London yesterday morning and First Minister-in waiting Mr Robinson meeting the British prime minister yesterday evening - not to mention Jeffrey Donaldson precipitately being appointed DUP director of elections - this is being ratcheted up to something beyond a mere difference of political opinion.
The fact remains though that Sinn Féin and the DUP mutually must agree to elect Mr Robinson as First Minister and to re-elect Martin McGuinness as Deputy First Minister tomorrow in the Assembly chamber. If they don't, they have another week to sort out the problem.
If they can't, the Northern Secretary under legislation should call Assembly elections. He could put the Assembly into suspension to get us through to the autumn and hold elections then, or he could say, "Enough of this, let's implement Plan B" - a greater role for Dublin in the affairs of Northern Ireland.
Mr Adams is annoyed because he feels the DUP is rubbing Sinn Féin's noses in a political mess.
The DUP - at least not at the moment - won't accede to the devolution of justice powers to the Northern Executive, although here there are hints of a possible compromise; the DUP is refusing to implement an Irish language Act; the DUP is giving Sinn Féin Education Minister Caitríona Ruane a hard time on the vexed subject of what should replace the Eleven Plus transfer test; sections of the DUP are baulking at the prospect of a Maze stadium, because it would also include a conflict transformation centre, which they interpret as a republican shrine to the hunger strikers.
The only significant retort Sinn Féin has is to threaten the Northern Executive and Assembly - the very powersharing administration which for years it had been trying to cajole the DUP into joining.
To force Assembly elections now seems on the face of it a disproportionate response to DUP stubbornness in blocking Sinn Féin's key list of demands. It's almost like saying war, war is better than jaw, jaw. It is also a huge gamble, both for Sinn Féin and the DUP.
Were elections to be held in June or July, or in the autumn, then the DUP, under pressure from Jim Allister's Traditional Unionist Voice, could return with fewer than the 36 seats it currently holds. Equally, it could canvass on the platform that it was not "bullied" by Sinn Féin and return as strong or stronger.
People don't want elections and generally don't appear hugely exercised by Sinn Féin's concerns. Therefore, forcing a new poll could antagonise some of Sinn Féin's support.
What also seems certain is that Gordon Brown can't bounce the DUP into immediately accepting the devolution of justice and policing, particularly when he may need DUP Westminster votes to get through his controversial legislation to extend the UK detention without charge period for terror suspects to 42 days.
Such brinkmanship seems out of kilter with the current rather mellow political zeitgeist in Northern Ireland, a needless throwback to the high-wire negotiations that were endlessly happening before Sinn Féin and the DUP achieved a pragmatic arrangement in March last year.
The fact is, having come this far, most people think Gerry Adams and Peter Robinson should continue being pragmatic and strategic in their approach to sort out their own problems, rather than running to the British prime minister and engaging in risky games of call my bluff.