UK:THERE IS a growing belief at Westminster that prime minister Gordon Brown may win tomorrow's critical vote on 42-day pre-charge detention for terror suspects in some future emergency.
Some Labour rebels are saying privately that they may no longer have the votes to inflict what would be an embarrassing defeat for the beleaguered prime minister. While taking nothing for granted, meanwhile, ministers are even contemplating possible victory by a comfortable margin should the nine DUP MPs finally decide to go into the government lobby.
However, leading Labour rebel David Winnick insists that earlier signs that home secretary Jacqui Smith was winning over opponents of the controversial measure were now receding. Mr Winnick also warned government loyalists yesterday against any suggestion that a defeat for the government would impact on Mr Brown's leadership.
Conservative shadow home secretary David Davis had claimed Labour whips were turning tomorrow's vote into one of "confidence" in the prime minister, telling potential Labour rebels that if Mr Brown lost the vote then foreign secretary David Miliband would follow quickly as leader.
However, Mr Winnick said: "To talk it up in the way that is being done is counter-productive. When Tony Blair didn't get his way with 90 days in November 2005 no one suggested that the prime minister needed to resign. It was decided on the merits, in my view, and it should be the same on Wednesday." Argument on the merits of the case for moving from 28 to 42 days in limited circumstances continued to rage yesterday, amid reports of disagreement among some of the UK's most senior police officers. .
However, PSNI Chief Constable Sir Hugh Orde echoed Metropolitan Commissioner Ian Blair's insistence that there will come a point when investigators need more than 28 days to investigate increasingly complex terror plots.
"Sadly, the day will come when the number 28 is important as it will not be high enough. It may not be today or tomorrow, but we have to plan for it," Mr Orde - considered a potential future Met Commissioner - wrote in the Sun.
Some DUP MPs were hoping Mr Blair's intervention would help persuade the party to back the government against the determined opposition of the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and the Labour rebels, estimated variously at between 30 and 50. It seems the party's nine MPs are engaged in a genuine debate, both about the merits of the change to 42 days and about the wisdom of buying potentially important influence with Gordon Brown now, as opposed to a longer-term investment in the promise of Conservative leader David Cameron.
DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson confirmed the party would make its decision close to tomorrow night's vote, saying: "There are issues of principle here, but we will take a party view on it. We will take a collective decision, but none of us has indicated our personal preference. If we were going to do a deal we would not be broadcasting it until negotiations are complete."