BRITAIN:Speculation about an early general election in the UK has been further fuelled by an opinion poll suggesting new prime minister Gordon Brown could double Labour's majority in the House of Commons.
However, despite clear evidence of a building "Brown bounce", there are also warning signs that Mr Brown cannot presume upon a protracted "honeymoon" period - with the European treaty/constitution, foreign policy, the proposed "unified" UK border patrol, ID cards and the extended detention of terror suspects all promising major political battles ahead.
As Mr Brown prepared to fly to Washington for talks with President Bush, YouGov's survey yesterday depicted Conservative leader David Cameron "forging backwards" towards the wastelands of Michael Howard's election defeat two years ago.
The poll put Conservative support at just 32 per cent - exactly where it was two years ago at the point of Tony Blair's third election victory. Labour's projected nine-point lead, meanwhile, is comparable to the 2001 election, and, if sustained, would give Mr Brown a 134-seat majority in a new parliament.
The findings come after a dismal period for Mr Cameron - with an internal row over grammar schools and selective education in turn triggering the first suggestions of a challenge to his leadership - culminating in embarrassment at his absence on a trip to Rwanda this week while floods hit his Oxford constituents and Mr Brown took prime ministerial command of the relief operation.
Mr Cameron's personal ratings have plummeted sharply, while just 18 per cent of voters currently expect his party to win the next election.
Discontent among Conservative MPs has been compounded by the discovery that the Tory leadership seriously underestimated Mr Brown as successor to Mr Blair, and the impact of the inevitable "Brown bounce" on Labour's standing. Some have also been unnerved by the enthusiasm of what is called "the Tory press" for what the Daily Telegraph describes as Mr Brown's "social conservatism" - as evidenced by apparent U-turns over super-casinos, cannabis classification and 24-hour drinking.
YouGov tested reaction to the string of announcements and initiatives launched during Mr Brown's first month as prime minister and found high support - 74 per cent - for permitting the detention of terrorist suspects "for as long as the police need to carry out their inquiries" provided "adequate judicial safeguards are in place".
A similar number, 71 per cent, favoured the suggestion that the British prime minister and US president should no longer be "joined at the hip".
However there was also strong backing, 58 per cent, for a referendum on the new EU treaty, alongside evidence that close to 40 per cent as yet "don't know" who would make the best prime minister, or whether the new man in Number 10 is actually proving to be "a good prime minister". A majority of voters, 52 per cent, still "disapprove" of the Labour government's record to date.
After an initial warm welcome, Mr Brown's apparent adoption of the Conservative proposal for a border control force has also come under scrutiny and been found wanting.
In an editorial on Thursday, the influential Daily Mail reflected an early impression of the Brown premiership, saying: "It's almost as if Gordon Brown keeps a checklist of concerns raised by this paper during the Blair years - and, one by one, he's ticking them off." The paper welcomed his announcements to date on government "spin" and "cleaning up politics", moves toward reversing the downgrading of cannabis to a Class C drug, deporting foreign criminals and round-the-clock drinking.
Perhaps more disturbing for Mr Brown - for whom "no spin" is the new spin - the suspicion was of "political positioning, more style than substance, intended more to wrong-foot the Tories than to protect [ Britain's] borders". Yesterday's editorial attacked what it called "a depressing display of dishonesty" by Labour MPs in the Commons on Wednesday, when they jeered Mr Cameron's demand for a referendum on the new EU treaty previously promised by Labour.
The Sun is likewise backing the Conservative leader over Mr Brown's reluctance to "trust the people", declaring: "The Labour Party has no right to change the way we are governed without asking permission."
Labour MP Frank Field has also urged Mr Cameron to "play the EU card" by promising a commitment to a referendum in the Tory manifesto for any election this year or next, arguing that Mr Brown would not call an election without a matching commitment.
Mr Cameron, meanwhile, is banking on a promised summer offensive against Mr Brown to transform the political weather by an autumn conference season that could see Britain on course for an election next spring or early summer. Mr Brown's summer torment for the Tory leader, of course, will be the recurring suggestion that it might yet come sooner than that.