BRITAIN:Gordon Brown appeared suddenly under pressure last night as shrinking poll leads for Labour and a David Cameron "bounce" cast doubts over his plans for a November election.
Some Labour MPs in marginal constituencies were already urging the prime minister to delay before news of an ICM poll for today's Guardian put Labour neck and neck with the Conservatives, eroding its eight-point pre-conference advantage.
A YouGov poll for Channel 4 News had earlier given Labour a four-point lead - enough to win with an increased majority - but again down seven points from Labour's 11-point lead in the same poll last week.
With a third Populus poll for the Times of London also slashing Labour's lead from 10 to three points, some analysts last night suggested the volatility in the polls evidenced during the conference season might persuade Mr Brown to stay his hand.
The prime minister had been expected to reach a decision on Sunday after reviewing public and private poll data, including Labour's own data from key marginals, with Tuesday the last day for the dissolution of parliament to permit a November 1st election. YouGov chairman Peter Kellner said "ideally" Mr Brown would want to delay his decision and see the polls settle over a period of weeks, although he was unable to do so.
With the clocks due to go back, opponents of an early poll have already voiced concern about the impact of dark nights and bad weather on turnout, with November 8th considered the latest date available to Mr Brown for a contest this year.
Prof John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde said the essential argument for going early - the present parliament can run until 2010 - was polls suggesting Mr Brown would do very well.
However, while a four-point lead would see an increase in Labour's current 66-seat majority, he said the Channel 4 poll could contain a "substantial potential warning" for Mr Brown.