Mr John Bruton will not ask his front bench to endorse his leadership of Fine Gael when it meets later today, as at least four members are set to vote no confidence in him. This represents a change of strategy from last November, when Mr Bruton sought and got unanimous endorsement from the front bench as soon as Mr Austin Deasy's abortive challenge was tabled.
Twelve of the 23-member front bench have publicly declared their support for Mr Bruton, who faces a no-confidence vote at tomorrow's parliamentary party meeting. Four have announced they will vote against Mr Bruton.
A further four have declined to say how they will vote, although at least two of these are also expected to vote against the leader. One said he had not yet made up his mind while the remaining two could not be contacted yesterday.
The front-bench members who have said they will vote confidence in Mr Bruton are Mr Bruton himself and his brother Richard; Mr Charles Flanagan; Mr Phil Hogan; Ms Nora Owen; Mr Ivan Yates; Mr Bernard Allen; Mr Enda Kenny; Mr Maurice Manning; Mr Gay Mitchell; Mr Denis Naughten and Mr Brian Hayes.
Those who have said they will support the no-confidence motion are Mr Michael Noonan, Mr Jim Mitchell, Mr Alan Shatter, Mr Michael Finucane and Ms Deirdre Clune.
Mr Alan Dukes, Mr Jim Higgins and Mr Jim O'Keeffe would not say how they would vote.
Supporters of each side say they believe Mr O'Keeffe will vote against Mr Bruton. Ms Frances Fitzgerald, Mr Paul Connaughton and Ms Avril Doyle could not be contacted for comment yesterday.
Fine Gael yesterday revised the figures for the number of people entitled to vote tomorrow. Some 72 deputies, senators and MEPs are entitled to cast secret ballots on the no-confidence motion.
A party spokesman was unclear as to what would happen in the unlikely event of a tied vote.
Each side claimed to have more than 40 committed supporters yesterday, a mathematical impossibility.
Contacts made by The Irish Times confirmed the following as committed supporters of Mr Bruton: Mr Bruton himself and his brother Richard, Mr Phil Hogan, Mr Ivan Yates, Mr Enda Kenny, Mr P.J. Sheehan, Ms Mary Banotti, Mr John Perry, Mr Denis Naughten, Mr Brian Hayes, Mr Bernard Durkan and Mr Austin Currie.
Those committed to voting against include Mr Jim Mitchell, Mr Michael Noonan, Mr Alan Shatter, Mr Louis Belton, Senator Liam Cosgrave, Senator John Connor, Ms Helen Keogh, Mr Dinny McGinley, Ms Olivia Mitchell, Mr Austin Deasy, Mr Jimmy Deenihan, Mr Michael Finucane, Mr John Browne, Mr Ulick Burke, Mr Gerry Reynolds, Mr Michael Creed, Mr Paul Bradford, Mr John Cush nahan, Mr Seymour Crawford and Ms Therese Ridge.
The remainder of the parliamentary party members declined to say who they would support or were uncontactable.
Cork South Central deputy Mr Simon Coveney, said he was undecided.
"To be honest, I've said this to everybody, including members of the party. I genuinely haven't made up my mind yet. My instinct is to support the leader, particularly when he is under fire and I'm very fond of John. But until I am sure in my mind that the best thing to do is to support him, I am not going to say anything."
Cork North Central deputy Mr Bernard Allen said he was supporting Mr Bruton.
"I think he is our best possibility of getting into government next time. He was an excellent Taoiseach . . . I think this is totally inopportune so close to a general election, which I believe will happen in May."
The Dublin South East senator Mr Joe Doyle said his "final decision would be in the best interests of the party" and he had not yet decided.
It is understood Donegal South West TD Mr Dinny McGinley would be supporting the motion of no-confidence.
In a joint statement, Mr Denis Naughten, spokesman on enterprise, trade and employment, and Mr Brian Hayes, spokesman on Northern Ireland, said they would support Mr Bruton. They felt the motion would cause division within the party and "will ultimately play into the hands of our opponents".
Cork East TD Mr Paul Bradford, a junior spokesman on youth affairs and adult education, said he would support the motion, as he did in November.
His constituency colleague, Mr David Stanton, said he was consulting party members in his constituency. His biggest concern, he said, was a "split down the middle" of the party.