Budget hits the spot for Bruton and Fine Gael

JOHN Bruton can afford a self congratulatory chuckle on the strength of this morning's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll

JOHN Bruton can afford a self congratulatory chuckle on the strength of this morning's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. Satisfaction ratings for his Government and himself have moved sharply ahead, while Fine Gael, has also gained from the budgetary arithmetic.

The figures suggest that Fine's Gael's sudden surge of support from 24 to 27 per cent has been fashioned out of an increased level of support among the farming community and, to a lesser extent, from middle class urban voters.

The package of farm concessions and tax breaks in the Budget clearly hit the spot, and the Government, the Taoiseach and his party have been the beneficiaries.

That's as far as the good news goes where the Coalition parties are concerned. The Labour Party and Democratic Left appear to be stuck in gear and have failed to strike a responsive chord with the electorate, even as polling day rapidly approaches.

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There is some consolation for Prionsias De Rossa, who sees hiss personal popularity recovering six points to 46 per cent, after he introduced a range of social welfare changes. But Dick Spring doesn't even have that consolation. His personal satisfaction rating slips to 51 per cent and the Labour Party remains grounded at 10 per cent, with a falling profile in middle class areas.

By contrast, John Bruton has put on five points to 58 per cent in terms of personal satisfaction. Bertie Ahern has consolidated his position with a one point gain at 59 per cent. And Mary Harney is mistress of all she surveys with an untouchable rating of 69 per cent, down two points from a record, high point in December.

Not just the Labour Party and Democratic Left have reason to worry. Fianna Fail's core vote - at 38 per cent - must be a cause for concern to Mr Ahern. The party is particularly vulnerable in middle class areas, and this weakness parallels the support profile of the party leader. Fianna Fail tends to lose support when an election gets under way, and Mr Ahern will have great difficulty in preventing a repeat of recent history.

The spectacular jump in support for the Progressive Democrats recorded last December - from 6 to 11 per cent - has been eroded somewhat. But the party has managed to consolidate most of the gain and it now holds a strong position at 9 per cent just one point behind the Labour Party.

Of particular satisfaction to Mary Harney will be the knowledge that the Progressive Democrats now have a comfortable lead over the Labour Party in the hearts of middleclass voters.

With a general election less than six months away, the electorate seems to be determined to bring about change. The combination of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats in government has a clear 12 point lead over the offering of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left.

But the Government's satisfaction rating has jumped by 11 points since last December, as a result of the Budget, and the rainbow parties may still be able to put on weight and close the gap.

In any event, their task is only half of that facing John Major in Britain, where a 25 per cent divide separates the Conservatives and the British Labour Party.