ALL parties hype their potential so it is hardly / surprising the number of seats each group expects to win next week far exceeds the 166 available in Dail Eireann. Fianna Fail says it will take 78, Fine Gael 55, Labour 32, the Progressive Democrats 15, Democratic Left 6 plus and the Greens 7. The situation at dissolution was 68, 46, 32, 8, 6 and one respectively, as well as 6 others. Only Lab our feels it can't improve. A party or grouping needs 84 seats to elect a Taoiseach and form a government so while no one expects an overall majority, both coalitions are full of confidence.
At present, the polls show FF and the PDs shading it but the Rainbow is far from giving up. Both sides are promoting the cohesiveness of their alliances and to, the amazement of many, the Taoiseach John Bruton went so far early in the campaign as to say that even if FG got 80 seats and Labour 60 he would still have their very good friend, Democratic Left's Proinsias De Rossa, in government. That is unlikely. Always in politics it's the balance of numbers that counts and basically after a lot of negotiating and heart-searching anyone will do a deal with anyone.
Indeed, should FF and the PDs fail to get the numbers, FF and Labour could reach agreement (as Quidnunc wrote many weeks ago), with Dick Spring probably stepping down in favour of Ruairi Quinn. Now, it's very definitely Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney versus the Rainbow. We know the composition of the present government but who would be in the alternative cabinet? Quindunc believes it will be composed of Bertie Ahern, Mary O'Rourke, John O'Donoghue, Brian Cowen, Noel Dempsey, Ray Burke, Dermot Ahern, Micheal Martin, Charlie McCreevy, James McDaid, David Andrews and Sile de Valera and from the PDs Mary Harney, Michael McDowell and either Des O'Malley or Bobby Molloy.
Two FF deputies who needn't hope even for a junior post are Wexford's John Browne and Cork's Dan Wallace. They upset their leader - one on the PDs, the other on abortion - in the crucial run-up to polling.