IRAQ: US President George Bush voiced concern yesterday over talk in the United States of a civil war in Iraq, prompting speculation he may be coming around to the idea and considering a future exit strategy.
Mr Bush's administration has insisted for months that Iraq is not sliding into civil war despite sectarian violence that has killed thousands of Iraqis.
"I hear a lot of talk about civil war," Mr Bush told a news conference. "I'm concerned about that of course."
Some US analysts say repeated talk of a civil war could pressure the administration into a withdrawal of the 135,000 US troops in Iraq, especially if Mr Bush's approval ratings fall further ahead of US congressional elections in November.
The US president made it clear he saw an immediate withdrawal as "absolutely wrong", but by using the term civil war and voicing unspecified concern, he might be acknowledging the view of US commanders earlier this month that civil war could be near.
Former US ambassador to Israel and Egypt, Ned Walker, said if military commanders were talking about civil war they must have been given permission from the White House to do so and the president was testing public opinion by uttering the phrase.
But he said Mr Bush was playing a high-risk game by talking of civil war because it would boost pressure to pull out of Iraq, especially if the White House heightened public fears over the threat of Iran building a nuclear weapon.
"If we are going to go into Iran, then you need to have the ability to pull back from there [ Iraq]," Mr Walker said.
Mr Bush's strongest argument for staying in Iraq was the threat of terrorism and its direct impact on the US. Once civil war was raised as the main threat, the public's appetite to stay there would wane fast, Mr Walker said.
The State Department declined to comment on Mr Bush's speech or to say whether it reflected a policy shift, but some officials said they were seeking White House guidance.
Within the State Department, which has taken the lead on US policy towards Iraq, there has been discussion of the merits of US strategy and whether staying the course was worth it in the face of civil war.
Middle East expert Shibley Telhami of the Brookings Institution said Mr Bush's credibility was at risk over Iraq and he could no longer rely on "denial and spin".
- (Reuters)