US: The US President, Mr George W. Bush, is gaining ground on Democratic candidate Senator John Kerry, according to the latest Gallup opinion polls. Sean O'Driscoll reports from New York.
The three separate polls, conducted for the television news channel CNN and the newspaper, USA Today, indicate that the increased support enjoyed by Senator Kerry after the Democratic National Convention is fading.
However, while Mr Bush has made significant ground in traditionally Republican areas of the country, he has made only slight progress in marginal or swing states.
In a survey of voters nationwide, three separate Gallup polls show Mr Kerry with an average one-point lead over the president - 48 per cent to Mr Bush's 47 per cent. This contrasts with three similar polls taken in June and early July, when Mr Kerry had a six point lead, with 50 per cent of the vote compared to 44 per cent for Mr Bush.
According to Gallup, the president emerged with a better rating after the Democratic Convention than he did in the weeks leading up to the event.
The poll comes just after a survey by the Pew Research Centre, which found that, for the first time since the Vietnam War, more Americans are concerned about national security than the economy.
Mr Carroll Doherty, a spokesperson for Pew Research, said that the centre's own opinion polls showed that the election is a very tight race.
"It's a statistical tie. When you include [independent left-wing candidate] Ralph Nader, you have Kerry on 47 per cent, Bush on 45 per cent and Nader on 2 per cent," he said.
Mr Kerry's lead, and Mr Bush's recent gain, is confirmed by www.electoral-vote.com, which gathers opinion polls from every American state for a daily state-by-state analysis of the election.
The site, run voluntarily, shows only slight changes in marginal states, with Missouri switching from a 1 per cent advantage for Mr Kerry to a 1 per cent advantage for the president.
New Mexico, however, showed a greater gain for Mr Bush, and both candidates are now locked on 46 per cent.
The www.electoral-vote.com site is becoming must viewing for political gurus, journalists and party workers, mostly because of its accuracy and easy-to-use map that divides states into seven categories: Strong Kerry, Weak Kerry, Barely Kerry, Exactly Tied, Barely Bush, Weak Bush and Strong Bush.
The site is run by an anonymous, self-proclaimed liberal who says that he will not let his politics get in the way of his work. In an on-line interview, he said that the site has cost about $2,000 to run so far and that he has received email threats for writing that Mr Kerry is leading nationally.
He set up the site because the national polls did not measure the blocks of votes, or electoral-college votes, that each candidate would likely receive in each state.
"Gallup generally does national polls. That gives you an idea what percentage of the population will vote for Bush or Kerry, but as we all discovered in 2000, the popular vote is irrelevant. It is the electoral college that matters," he said.
Another popular site, electionprojection.com, also keeps a tally in every state and is run by Mr Scott Elliott, a Republican.
The site has been recommended as accurate by the Kerry-Edwards campaign and also places Mr Kerry ahead.