Bush holds narrow lead over Gore in unpredictable race

Governor George Bush is continuing to hold his narrow lead over Vice-President Al Gore with less than a week to go before the…

Governor George Bush is continuing to hold his narrow lead over Vice-President Al Gore with less than a week to go before the presidential election.

Political observers say it is the most unpredictable election since the Kennedy-Nixon one in 1960. The lead in the CNN/USA Today Gallup daily tracking poll has changed eight times since it began on September 6th. The last time the lead changed even once after Labour Day early in September was in 1980 when Ronald Reagan overtook president Jimmy Carter in the final week.

Mr Bush was ahead in five national polls published yesterday, but within the margin of error so the pundits are reluctant to call the election next Tuesday in his favour at this stage. The race will be decided in a handful of battle-ground states where the lead is swinging almost daily.

This is unsettling the Washington political scene where the outcome of the congressional elections is also too close to call, although the Republicans are cautiously confident of keeping control of the Senate where only one-third of the seats are in contention.

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In the House of Representatives all 435 seats are up for re-election so the present 12-seat Republican majority can be overturned if the Democrats have a net gain of seven. Such a development would hand the office of Speaker and the chairing of all the committees to the Democrats for the first time since 1994.

In the presidential campaign, Mr Gore has returned to California where his once apparently impregnable lead is being challenged by Mr Bush who campaigned in the largest state the day before.

Mr Gore has followed Mr Bush on the popular Jay Leno TV show. Both candidates are reaching out to younger audiences through appearances on television entertainment programmes which attract bigger audiences than their daily stump speeches.

Mr Bush clowned with Mr Leno who donned a Bush Hallowe'en mask. "That's scary," quipped Mr Bush, who then put on an Al Gore mask saying: "This is more scary". Mr Bush also displayed a mock front page of the Los Angeles Times for November 8th proclaiming him the winner in banner headlines and with an adjoining report headlined "Al Gore and Tipper gracious in defeat."

Mr Gore flew first to Oregon yesterday, another state where he had been expected to win until a few weeks ago. But the strong showing of the Green Party candidate, Mr Ralph Nader, eating into the Democratic vote has now made the state too close to call.

President Clinton tried to give Mr Gore a boost when he met 250 African-American religious leaders at the White House yesterday. The President praised the present economic prosperity and said they would "never have another time like this to build the future of our dreams for our children".

He said under Mr Gore the economy would continue to grow while with the Republicans the country would slip back to budget deficits. He said Mr Gore was "a good person who will be a great president".

The Bush campaign has intensified its advertising attacks on Mr Gore, accusing him of "bending the truth" about social security and prescription drugs. But the Gore campaign is continuing to cast doubt on Mr Bush's qualifications for the Presidency and criticising his record in Texas on healthcare.